Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Tuesday, 15 November 2016

Scorched earth (Sydney investors again)

Lending finance improves

Policy makers no only too well how vital housing market lending is to credit growth these days.

Total lending finance improved by +1.9 per cent to $68.4 billion in September, despite remaining down by some 7.4 per cent over the past year. 

However, the rebound was mainly driven by property investors filtering back into the market as the regulatory pressure valve is released a little further.



In trend terms lending to owner-occupiers has eased, in part due to lower transaction volumes, but commercial finance (which includes property investor loans) is beginning to rise again.



Credit card balances and limits were both down year-on-year.

No mining investment rebound yet

In truth, Australia's resources investment boom was not much financed by commercial loans in the first place, but as an indicator these figures show how lending to the mining industry has been annihilated over the past year, with annual fixed loans down by nearly three quarters from a year ago.



If there is to be an eventual rebound in mining investment on the back of this year's bounce in commodity prices, there was zero evidence of it in these figures for September.

Sydney investors on the warpath

As for the property investor loans figures by state, New South Wales saw investor loans increase to a 14-month high of $5.8 billion, thus taking the annual total back up to $57.2 billion.

And this into lower market listings - small wonder the Sydney market is now on the rise again.

CoreLogic now reports Sydney dwelling prices as up by +14.5 per cent over 2016 to date. Whether or not other data providers agree, the market is clearly heading north. 

In Victoria, too, investor loans are now evidently increasing again.


Indeed, investor loans seem to be finding a base everywhere, even in the resources states.


APRA watching closely

Overall, a so-so result for commercial finance once lending for property investment is stripped out.

Investors are returning to the markets of Sydney and Melbourne in particular, meaning that APRA may be poised to act again in 2017.