Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Thursday, 10 November 2016

Immigration turns up a notch (8 million+ short-term arrivals)

Immigration up

Annual net permanent and long term arrivals into Australia increased marginally in September to +267,500, some way up from the nadir of +262,800 in June. 

A significant driver of the rebound has been permanent settlers from Asia, of which there were 74,300 over the year to September, or 56.6 per cent of the total. 

By contrast, permanent settlers from New Zealand, and from Europe with their weakened currencies, continued to wane significantly.

8 million & beyond

The rebalancing quietly continues, with the number of short term departures ticking a notch lower for a third consecutive month in September, while short term arrivals smashed new records by a huge margin at 709,700 in the month (+11.7 per cent over the year).

The chart therefore dovetails into a neat 'pincer' formation, as short term arrivals flew beyond 8 million for the first time, and the pace of increase approaching two decade highs!

No surprises for guessing that the increase was driven by the 1.58 million visitors from China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, which even now are still increasing at an annual pace of more than 20 per cent. Extraordinary!

There has also been a huge lift in tourism from the United States, rising at an annual pace of around +18 per cent. 

While tourism is of course a major driver, the role of international education should not be underestimated with a record 506,200 education arrivals over the year to September (+12.7 per cent).

While there are inevitably some back-and-forth trips within these figures, as an indicator this chart matches up quite closely with enrolments data which have also suggested rapid growth in international student numbers, particularly from China and India.

The wrap

Quite a solid set of numbers across the board here, with record short term arrivals and increasing immigration. 

Overall, this points to annual population growth tracking at around +350,000, but note how population growth is being driven less by 'permanent' arrivals and more by those arriving on other types of visa.