Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Thursday, 3 November 2016

Cost of living increases very low (except house prices)

COLI subdued

As expected ABS Cost of Living Indexes revealed very subdued cost of living pressures in Q3 2016.

The cost of living index for employee households increased by just +1.2 per cent over the year to September.

Prices were lifted marginally higher by fruit and vegetables. 

Sydney & Melbourne housing to boom in 2017

This positive news will be utterly overshadowed when the media reports SQM Research's much-awaited housing market forecasts for the 2017 calendar year tomorrow. 

SQM's central or base case predicts that Sydney will record a massive +11 to +16 per cent price growth in 2017, with Melbourne not far behind at +10 to +15 per cent.

The 'Scenario 2' forecasts, which incorporate a likely interest rate cut by the middle of the year and further regulatory action from APRA, see Sydney's price gains soaring to a huge +13 to +18 per cent, and Melbourne to +12 to +17 per cent. 

Even in the interest rate rise scenario, which for mine is an outlier with inflation tracking so far below the target range, strong dwelling price gains are forecast for the two most populous cities.

The dwelling price gains forecast for Brisbane are solid in all three scenarios. 

Bullish forecasts for Australian property markets are more or less always treated with scorn, but to be frank SQM has beaten the competition hands down over recent years, so by and large these forecasts will be treated with the utmost respect. 

SQM has included some excellent analysis over its predicted dwelling completions and supply surpluses, which will increase by 2018 (but perhaps not by as much as many analysts expect). 

I don't issue investment recommendations very often on this blog, or at all really, but SQM's Boom or Bust Report is definitely a BUY