Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Thursday, 27 October 2016

MEL-SYD lead jobs growth

Employment growth slowing

As expected, total employment growth slowed to +163,900 over the year to September, according to the ABS Detailed Labour Force figures, for an annual employment growth rate of +1.4 per cent.

The employment growth rate had been much higher, which has helped to bring down Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from 6.3 per cent to 5.6 per cent. 

Over the last year, Greater Sydney and Melbourne combined have accounted for 78 per cent of employment growth.

The figures for regional New South Wales look a bit unusual, recently sinking back down.

This odd-looking decline was driven by year-on-year employment in Shoalhaven and the Southern Highlands shrinking by more than a quarter, which looks suspiciously like a statistical anomaly.

After a flat half decade, regional Victoria has added a decent +30,400 jobs over the year to September, with Geelong accounting for most of that increase (+20,000). 

Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra accounted for the remaining employment growth over the past year. 

On the other hand year-on-year total employment declined in Perth, Darwin, and Hobart, as well as in regional Queensland, regional Western Australia, and regional South Australia.

In fact, excluding the recent burst of employment growth in Geelong, regional employment growth has been negative in aggregate (with some areas obviously faring better than others), which is more or less what you would expect to see as resources investment continues to decline over the forthcoming year.

Sydney unemployment rate falling

Looking at the capital city unemployment rates, the most striking performance is that of Sydney, where the unemployment rate has declined to 4.68 per cent. 

Elsewhere, there looks to be a fair amount of labour force slack.

The wrap - capital cities creating the jobs

In original terms, over the last two years employment has increased by a very solid +385,000 or +3.4 per cent in Australia (the seasonally adjusted figures put the increase at a slightly stronger +396,800).

Sydney and Melbourne alone have accounted for +250,600 of the increase, while Brisbane accounted for +43,500.

By far the strongest 'rest of state' figures over a two-year timeframe have been seen in New South Wales.