Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Wednesday, 5 October 2016

Dining boom quietly returns

Department stores snap back

I noted last month the unusual-looking -6.2 per cent decline in department store retail turnover.

The sector snapped back with a +3.5 per cent gain in August together with an adjustment to the July result, helping total Retail Trade to record modest growth of +0.4 per cent in the month.  

Industry turnover hit a total of $25.1 billion.

Overall it's been a weaselly patch for retail turnover, with annual trend growth sinking well below the 5-year average. 

State versus state

Despite a monthly rebound in New South Wales and Victoria, retail turnover has been flat across the last three months in Vic.

In fact, the only solid retail performers over the past quarter have been the Queenslanders (+2.5 per cent). 

Following a previously very strong uplift, the impact of higher asset values now appears to be losing its sting in the two most populous states. 

The strongest annual gains in retail turnover have been in IKEA-inspired Canberra and the two southern states, while the other resources states have pretty much flat-lined. 

'Dining boom'

At the industry level, the boom in household goods also appears to have run its course.

The only other real point of note was a seasonally adjusted +1.2 per cent increase in expenditure in cafes, restaurants, and takeaways.

In fact, annual growth in the takeaway food sector surged to a 6-year high.

Meanwhile across the industry sector annual turnover growth jumped to +5.9 per cent, to now account for its greatest ever share of total retail turnover. 

Either household budgets aren't remotely stretched, or eating out has become a new essential. Or maybe a combo of the two.

The wrap

A somewhat better monthly result, but overall retail turnover growth seems to be running low on huff and puff.