Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Saturday, 1 October 2016

Brexit wobbles negotiated, precariously

Brexit wobbles?

UK consumer confidence rebounded close to pre-Brexit levels in September, while Q2 GDP growth was revised up marginally from +0.6 per cent to +0.7 per cent as further investment and services data became available.

It seems that the fears of the economy instantaneously crapping itself were somewhat overblown, although things may change in time.

House price growth was pretty much flat in the month of September, with the average price checking in at £206,015 according to the Nationwide index. 

Annual price growth nationally has eased to +5.3 per cent. 

Nationwide noted although construction has picked up a little housing supply has only picked up gradually, and is still nowhere near the levels needed to meet population growth and demand. 

Meanwhile the number of homes on the market remained close to all-time lows.

Here's the national average house price chart, with a (my) trend line drilled through it.

While prime central London is being clobbered by punitive stamp duty changes (see: record low stock on market), the fastest annual average house price growth was seen in Outer Metropolitan London at +9.6 per cent.

Capital growth over the year to September was also very strong in the areas surrounding London, including the South East (+8.0 per cent), and East Anglia (+7.3 per cent).

In aggregate the London average price rose by +7.1 per cent over the year to September.

The below chart indexes average house prices to Q1 1993 for England's regions.

The capital city London and nearby University and tech hub Cambridge have seen house prices explode higher, with daylight next. 

London house prices are now a thunderous +56.3 per cent above even their 2007 peaks.

In the north of England, however, prices have declined over the past year and remain at the levels seen more than a decade ago. 

Indeed, average house prices in the North, North West, and Humberside regions remain below their 2007 peaks. 

Annual house price growth has been soft in Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Yorkshire, and the North West of England.