Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Saturday, 8 October 2016

6 years of jobs growth for Obama

6 years of jobs

The US economy added +156,000 jobs in September, marking a record 72 consecutive months of expansion. Since 2009 the net gains in employment have overwhelmingly been in full-time positions.

President Obama has now overseen the addition of 10.6 million jobs, as the election finally looms. Team Obama argues they should take the credit for more than 15 million jobs since early 2010, as they'd no doubt like to disclaim responsibility for the first bit in 2009.

And I'd like to disclaim responsibility for my wayward gold shots. Life sucks, hey!

Over the past three months the economy has added an average of +196,000 jobs per month, while the year-to-date monthly average is +178,000. A bit like in Australia, jobs are being created in professional and business services and healthcare, but lost in mining and manufacturing.

The unemployment rate was little changed at 5 per cent, noting that the participation rate has increased from 62.4 per cent to 62.9 per cent over the past year, with a 1 per cent increase in the 25 to 54 year old cohort.

Meanwhile the size of the labour force jumped by +444,000 this month and following significant declines at long last grew at an annual pace of +1.9 per cent, the biggest increase since the crisis.

And last but not least, average hourly earnings were up by +2.6 per cent over the year to $25.79.

The wrap

The jobs market continues to improve, and jobs growth is tracking at a slightly faster pace than the +145,000 or so per month required to absorb population growth and new entrants to the labour force while keeping the unemployment rate steady.

No chance of a Fed rate hike in November, but futures markets suggest that you can pencil December into your pocket calendar, if you have one for such things.