Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision, author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

Friday, 23 September 2016

Skyscraper boom

Population boom

Victoria's population growth has exploded, the state's headcount increasing by a thunderous +38,808 in the first three months of 2016 alone.

In fact, total population growth in Victoria has accelerated away to such an extent that even in the face of record apartment approvals and a surge in dwelling starts vacancy rates in Melbourne have been tightening

A chart of the ratio of population growth to dwelling completions explains why - on this metric dwelling completions are actually tracking below their long run average. 

Throw in the number of potentially empty apartments owned by non-resident Chinese investors and the head-scratching equation is solved.


Of course, there is a record number of apartments presently under construction in Australia, so Melbourne's supply will catch up to demand eventually, probably in 2017 (at least in aggregate, though the supply delivered will be horribly mismatched). 

In New South Wales too, after years of under-building the ratio of population growth to completions was still tracking above the long run average by March 2016. 


However, with interstate migration to Queensland picking up, by today in September we have probably now some way closer to crossing the supply/demand rubicon for this Sydney property market cycle.

In previous cycles when the ratio sank below 1.5 the Sydney market was flooded with supply.