Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

'Huge fan of your work. Very impressive!' - Scott Pape, The Barefoot Investor, Australia's #1 bestseller.

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the finest analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Business Insider.

'I've been investing 40 years yet still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the finest young commentators' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

'The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate - loads of good data & charts...most comprehensive analyst I follow in Oz' - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, 2 x NYT bestseller.

Sunday, 18 September 2016

How not to be unemployed in Australia

Wasted youth

How best not to be unemployed in Australia?

Don't be young cobber, basically.

By the way, you can click on these charts to make them bigger.

The slightly more heartening news is that once you get over the age of 25 you're relatively unlikely to be unemployed.

The historical figures by age cohort that I've charted below provide some context.

Unfortunately when the economy isn't firing it seems to be more or less inevitable that young people with less experience are the first to be punted and the last to be re-hired. 

But whichever way you spin the numbers an unemployment rate of above 12 per cent for 15-24 year olds in Australia is unacceptably high.

And especially so when compared to an unemployment rate of just over 4 per cent for all other measured cohorts combined.

The figures from during the mining boom showed that youth unemployment can get well below double digit levels if the economy is performing.


Week ahead

A fairly quiet week ahead for economic news but there nevertheless will be some interesting releases out, including the ABS Residential Property Prices for Q2 2016.

Given the ABS stratified median price methodology and what we have seen from other data providers for the second quarter of this calendar year, I expect to see only moderate price gains in Q2, which will be followed by a stronger uplift in Q3.

The market forecast range for Q2 runs from a moderately feasible +0.5 per cent to an improbably bullish +5.5 per cent.

Later in the week will be the Detailed Labour Force figures for August which will add some more colour to which regions are being hit most severely by the resources bust.

And on Thursday, I expect the Australian Demographic Statistics figures for Q1 2016 to show that nationally population growth has been tracking at around 1.3 per cent per annum, with magnetic Sydney and Melbourne mopping up a proportionately record share of the absolute population growth.

The demographic data also lags significantly: it will show Australia's population passing 24 million in the first quarter of 2016, but as of today the estimated resident population is 24,192,500.