Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Thursday, 4 August 2016

Record Chinese visitors...again

Migration at a 9 year low (casualisation)

There was a slight increase in the number of permanent settlers in Australia in the year to June, according to today's ABS figures

Most come from Asia, at 58.4 per cent in the year to June.

Only 410 Brit settlers arrived in the month of June - crashing down from a record 2,560 in August 2007 to the lowest figure in the history of the data series. 

Not so many Kiwis are making the permanent journey across the Tasman either right now.

With departures up over the past year, net permanent and long term immigration fell quite sharply to +262,800, the lowest figure since March 2007.

This is another type of casualisation. 

Just as there are more part time jobs these days than there used to be, there are more part time migrants!

Despite the slowdown, as I explored here the headcount in Australia is probably up by more than 400,000 over the last year, including a surge in international students.

A challenge for policy makers is that the largest cities are creating most of the new jobs, and as a result are mopping up the great bulk of population growth too - while population growth is slow in Tasmania, and slowing in Perth, Darwin Adelaide, and most of regional Australia (although regional New South Wales has begun to create jobs lately). 

Record visitors

The lower dollar has resulted in an epic boom in short term arrivals, to yet another all-time high of 7.84 million.

And this figure is accelerating, up by 10 per cent over the past year. 

That said, the downward pressure impact of the lower dollar on short term departures (up to 9.67 million) may be beginning to fade. 

Most short term visitors come for holidays (3.91 million) or to visit friends and relatives (2.04 million).

No surprises that June saw yet another monthly record in the number of visitors from China and Hong Kong,

There has been a stunning 21 per cent increase in annual visitors from China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, to a record 1.54 million (a rip-snorting 13-fold increase from 1991). 

Meanwhile 469,800 education arrivals in the year to June was 14 per cent higher than one year ago.

Recall that the visa rules for international students were relaxed effective 1 July, so these figures will likely accelerate in the second half of 2016.

The wrap

As you were, really.

Fewer long term and permanent migrants to Australia - particularly from the United Kingdom and New Zealand - but record short term arrivals and ever more Chinese visitors (with more to come when the changes to student visa rules kick in as the year progresses).