Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Monday, 22 August 2016

Kiwi exodus reverses

Migration to NZ slows

Following a period of strong migration from Australia to New Zealand, largely comprised of Kiwis returning home, this trend has now demonstrably slowed up in recent months, with departures for NZ now in a declining trend. 

About 15,800 New Zealand citizens per annum have migrated from Australia to NZ over the past three years, well above the 35 year average to 2013 of 8,900. 

Despite this shift there are still more NZ citizens departing for Australia permanently than arriving from Australia, since Australia has a larger and more diverse economy, more opportunities, employment, and comparatively high average weekly earnings

The annual number of permanent and long term migrants from Australia to NZ is now slowly but surely pulling back. 

In fact, Statistics NZ actually reported a seasonally adjusted net losses of permanent departures from New Zealand to Australia in July:

"There was a small seasonally adjusted net loss of 20 migrants to Australia in July 2016. 

This relates to the declining trend in migrant arrivals from Australia and an increasing trend in migrant departures to Australia."

Going forward

If you think that Australia's labour force figures are a bit up and down, then this volatility is nothing compared with what is seen in New Zealand! 

The unemployment rate figures for NZ are absolutely all over the place, the latest wild revisions taking the unemployment rate for the March 2016 quarter all the way down to 5.2 per cent, leading to an apparently "steady" quarter-on-quarter result in June.

Technically, therefore, New Zealand (5.1 per cent) now has a lower unemployment rate than Australia (5.7 per cent).

Generally speaking, a comparatively lower unemployment rate should work in NZ's favour when potential migrants are weighing up travel decisions. 

In reality both economies have been impacted by their respective weaknesses in export prices, with New Zealand's dairy industry racking up some alarming losses. 

Both countries are also seeing strong employment growth and inflows of capital to their largest cities, but typically weaker activity in their regions. 

And both countries are pushing immigration from Asian international students as a key demographic policy. 

Brexit impacts

I've previously noted how British permanent migrants to Australia fell to their lowest monthly level on record in June at just 410 down from a record 2,560 in August 2007.

It's been one of the contributory factors in Australia's slowing population growth, with Asian migrants capturing an ever-increasing share.

Britain's recent "Brexit" referendum - resulting in a momentous decision to leave the European Union - is expected to have some impact here, with more Britons expected to seek an alternative status. 

This shock result could potentially benefit immigration in both New Zealand and Australia.

Indeed, it has already been noted that there has been a tenfold increase in British registrants to migrate to New Zealand immediately after the Brexit vote.

10,649 Brits registered to move to New Zealand in the 49 days following the vote, according to the NZ Herald, up from only 4,599 registrations in the corresponding prior year period.