Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Saturday, 6 August 2016

Holy moly


The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a thumping employment increase of +255,000 for July.

The already massive result in June was revised even higher to +292,000, while there was also an upwards revision for the lower result in April. 

The US economy has now added jobs for a record 70 consecutive months.

The old rule of thumb was that jobs growth of above +75,000 per month should keep unemployment down.

Well, in the last three months the economy has added a total of +571,000 positions!

If you're interested in trends that might be reflected in Australia, how about this? Professional and business services employment increased by 70,000 in July alone to be +550,000 in just 12 months. 

On the other hand mining employment has collapsed by 220,000 or minus 26 per cent since September 2014. 

Despite the mining malaise, nonfarm payrolls continue to recover at a strong pace. 

It had been though that with the economy approaching full employment - not to mention the uncertainty of Brexit - that jobs growth would slow up. 

But no...

Yet the economy has still managed to create +186,000 jobs per month so far in 2016.

The unemployment rate was steady at 4.9 per cent.

As an economy approaches full employment, inflation is eventually expected to take hold. 

Average hourly earnings were up by 9 cents or a strong +0.3 per cent, to be +2.64 per cent higher over the year, which is a solid result in a period of such low inflation of around 1 per cent. 

Amazingly good set of numbers, which will in turn lead to speculation that the US Fed will hike interest rates before the end of 2016.

Wall Street surged to record highs on the news, the S&P 500 up 0.86 per cent to its highest ever close at 2,182.87.