Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Thursday, 11 August 2016

CBA reports $9.5bn profit (Mining cliff 80 per cent done)

CBA reports $10 billion profit

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) reported its full year FY2016 results yesterday, including cash NPAT of $9,450 million (up 3 per cent), and a strong cash return on equity of 16.5 per cent.

CBA announced a fully franked final dividend of $2.22 per share, taking the full year dividend to a tidy $4.20 per share.

Home loan arrears remain low, although at the state level there has been a notable increase in Western Australia.

It was interesting to note that CBA now believes that drop in mining investment is now 80 per cent complete. 

If correct, this is hugely significant for the Australian economy, because excluding the very significant drag from falling mining investment the rest of the economy almost by definition must have been growing at a reasonable pace.

It's been a theme I've been revisiting on this blog for a long time now. 

It's now been nearly four years since resources construction activity peaked, and sooner or later activity will stop falling.

The official ABS figures charted below only run to 31 March, but they tend to support CBA's view. 

That said, it does appear to me as though capex has a way to fall yet in Western Australia (unlike in Queensland where the medicine has largely already been taken).

It's also worth noting that 30 per cent of mining job losses still lie ahead, according to CBA's assessment, so there is still undoubtedly some pain to come for resources regions.