Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Saturday, 30 July 2016

Sydney surging again

Rise again

Sydney's median house price was rising again by the June quarter, up by +2.94 per cent in Q2 to $1,073,000. 

The median unit price also jumped by +2 per cent in June to a fresh high of $704,000.

Through the cycles, it has been that unit prices are steadier than house prices, which tend to record stronger gains when the market is strong, but sometimes decline further at times of weakness.

Since July 2012 the increase in house prices (+62 per cent or +409,000) has outpaced the increase in unit prices (+44 per cent or +$216,000).

As you can see, macro-prudential intervention seemed to have more impact on the detached house market, where more debt is typically required to make a purchase. 


The shape of the chart appears to be following a very similar trajectory to what we saw in Britain during the equivalent macro-prudential measures over there (the "mortgage market review").

Which is to say, fast price rises being scrambled for a time, before prices return to growth. 

House prices in Brisbane increased by a slightly stronger +3 per cent in Q2 to be a solid +6 per cent higher over the year at $509,000. 

Melbourne also saw a +2.4 per cent increase in house prices to be +9 per cent higher over the financial year at $743,000. 

Despite a consistently tightening rental market, house prices were down by -2 per cent in June in Hobart, and -1.34 per cent lower over the quarter. 

House prices were also moderately lower over the year in Perth and Darwin. 

However, Darwin vacancy rates may have turned a corner in Darwin, while it won't be long before Perth starts to attract interstate investors with prices starting to look comparatively cheap. 

The full report from Residex is here