Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Friday, 22 July 2016

Small migration to NZ from Aus

NZ migration in a "declining trend"

Having hit record high levels in 2015, migration into has New Zealand has passed its peak and steadied, with a declining trend in migrant arrivals.

Since peaking at 6,200 per month in November 2015, migration has steadied to a historically high 5,700 per month.

Reported Statistics NZ: 

"Recent net gains have shown a declining trend. The trend in migrant arrivals is declining".

And with New Zealand's economy weakening, migration will likely slow further in due course.

Annual migrant arrivals from Australia were flat in June at 25,703, broadly unchanged from a similar figure in May, having previously increased over the last two years in response to a performing New Zealand economy. 

In terms of net migration from Australia, reported Statistics NZ: 

"There was a small seasonally adjusted net gain of 200 migrants from Australia in June 2016".

Met migration can be a handy indicator of the relative strength of the respective economies of Australia and New Zealand.

Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 5.8 per cent in June, and the trend rate of unemployment has declined to a 33-month low (although this does mask under-utilisation and under-employment in most states and territories). 

Statistics NZ has not yet released its unemployment rate figures for June, but recently the unemployment rate across the Tasman has been rising.

Migration to New Zealand from Australia is sometimes referred to as a recession indicator. 

However, there is no recession in Australia - in fact the economy grew by 3.1 per cent in the year to March 2016, and 3.2 per cent in trend terms.

Meanwhile Australia's population grew by 326,100 in 2015 and has since increased well past 24 million to 24,136,000.