Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the finest property analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Business Insider.

"I've been investing 40 years yet I still learned new concepts; one of the finest young commentators" - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

'The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate - loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia...follow Pete Wargent' - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, 2 x NYT bestseller.

'Superlative work' - Grant Williams, founder RealVision.

Sunday, 10 July 2016

Retail trade fizzles


A quick 30-second catch up with the May Retail Trade figures (I didn't get around to it the other day) which showed another underwhelming result, with turnover up by just +0.2 per cent for the month.

In trend terms annual growth has declined to +3.3 per cent, which is below the half decade average.

Industry split

Strength in retail trade has previously been driven by a surge in household goods sales and discretionary spend on cafes and restaurants, but these sectors are no longer running quite so hot.

Over the last quarter food retail and "other retailing" has recorded solid growth, but overall the headline results are not pointing to a strong GDP contribution from consumption in the second quarter. 

State versus state

At the state level easy monetary policy has kept activity ticking over, but the resources states of Northern Territory, Western Australia, and Queensland have all lost momentum in retail turnover.

The ACT had seen a burst of activity earlier in the year following the opening of a new IKEA, but this fad too seems to have passed.

After a decade of stagnation best performing state year-on-year was Tasmania.

The wrap

A soft result, overall, and the household savings ratio is still quite elevated.

An interesting week ahead, with the May housing finance figures due out tomorrow morning.