Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Friday, 24 June 2016

Population absorbing new dwelling supply


We've all heard about the glut of new building in Sydney, and particularly Melbourne.

But the return of strong population growth figures confirmed yesterday suggest that in 2015 the rate of actual dwelling completions didn't get out of whack.

Yes, there was a record high level of dwelling approvals, but actual completions weren't quite so high.

In total 115,328 new houses were completed in 2015, and 74,871 "other" dwellings (townhouses, units, and apartments). 

Victoria, which everyone knows has been overbuilding, completed an impressive 56,816 new dwellings last year.

Yet annual population growth accelerated to a massive 109,800, for a population growth to completions ratio of 1.93. 

This is actually above the long run ratio (don't forget these figures don't include demolitions or stock obsolescence) suggesting that last year the dwelling stock was likely still being well absorbed.

And, as I noted here, net interstate migration to Victoria has now rushed to an all-time record high.

Vacancy rates have therefore tightened in Melbourne.

New South Wales completed 45,799 dwellings, but here too population growth was exceptionally strong at 106,100.

The equates to a ratio of 2.32, also well above the long run average.

Perhaps no wonder that inner Sydney vacancy rates are so tight, and have been tracking at a two year low.