Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Friday, 24 June 2016

Population absorbing new dwelling supply


We've all heard about the glut of new building in Sydney, and particularly Melbourne.

But the return of strong population growth figures confirmed yesterday suggest that in 2015 the rate of actual dwelling completions didn't get out of whack.

Yes, there was a record high level of dwelling approvals, but actual completions weren't quite so high.

In total 115,328 new houses were completed in 2015, and 74,871 "other" dwellings (townhouses, units, and apartments). 

Victoria, which everyone knows has been overbuilding, completed an impressive 56,816 new dwellings last year.

Yet annual population growth accelerated to a massive 109,800, for a population growth to completions ratio of 1.93. 

This is actually above the long run ratio (don't forget these figures don't include demolitions or stock obsolescence) suggesting that last year the dwelling stock was likely still being well absorbed.

And, as I noted here, net interstate migration to Victoria has now rushed to an all-time record high.

Vacancy rates have therefore tightened in Melbourne.

New South Wales completed 45,799 dwellings, but here too population growth was exceptionally strong at 106,100.

The equates to a ratio of 2.32, also well above the long run average.

Perhaps no wonder that inner Sydney vacancy rates are so tight, and have been tracking at a two year low.