Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Thursday, 21 January 2016

Unemployment trending down

Employment trends

Greater Sydney's oustanding and well-documented jobs boom continues apace with another +92,800 positions added in the year to December 2015 according to today's Detailed Labour Force release. 

Greater Melbourne also looks to be in good nick, having added +51,900 new jobs.

Happily after years of zero growth, regional New South Wales has suddenly come to the jobs party as the positive sentiment ripples outwards from Sydney, at last adding +77,800 new positions over the year, with decent employment gains in the Hunter Valley, Shoalhaven, the Illawarra, and to a lesser extent Newcastle.

Unemployment rates in the coal mining regions of New South Wales appear to be falling, after earlier spikes. 

On the other hand, employment in regional Victoria has declined, with impressive annual gains in Geelong (+8,300) and Shepparton (+4,900) more than offset by declines in Bendigo (-7,300), Ballarat, Latrobe-Gippsland, and elsewhere. 

After a tough few years of transition as the mining boom peaked, Brisbane is now adding jobs at a healthy pace, with total employment increasing by +34,400 over the past year.

While I don't want to jinx it after half a decade of jobs growth close to zero, but the red line over the past four months suggests that things might even be turning a corner for the labour market in Adelaide!

The Australian reported today that there may yet be a lifeline on offer to save Holden's Elizabeth plant from its expected 2017 closure, which would potentially be wonderful news for the region.

That said, 'thousands of jobs might not go' isn't exactly a compelling case to invest in property there just yet - personally I prefer to aim for big open goals or 'one foot hurdles' in imperfect property markets rather than bets on such uncertain outcomes.

Totting up the cumulative employment growth in one chart shows that Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane have between them added +323,200 jobs over the past two years, which is well over two thirds of the total employment growth for the 24 month period. 

Unemployment declines

At the capital city level the raw original data reported shows that unemployment rates are trending down in Greater Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, as measured on a 12mMA basis.

On the other hand, the trend remains up for now in Greater Adelaide and Perth, while the outlook in Greater Hobart seems to have dimmed a little, with job creation stalling and total employment declining a little in 2015.

Looking at the monthly data, Greater Sydney's unemployment rate of just 4.6 per cent reflects a strong economy.

Meanwhile Greater Brisbane's unemployment rate of 5.2 per cent is another solid improvement on the 5.5 per cent seen one year ago and well down from 5.8 per cent in December 2013.