Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the finest property analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Business Insider.

"I've been investing 40 years yet I still learned new concepts; one of the finest young commentators" - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

'The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate - loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia...follow Pete Wargent' - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, 2 x NYT bestseller.

'Superlative work' - Grant Williams, founder RealVision.

Friday, 1 January 2016

London leads for 5th year in a row (+50% from 2007 peak)

Nationwide released its Q4 2015 UK House Price Index which showed the average house price rising 4.5 per cent in 2015.

Nationwide's index has recorded much lower annual price growth than the 9 per cent reported by rival data provider Halifax, but 0.8 per cent growth in the month of December suggested that the gap may now be closing. 


Regional house price growth has been weak. I've been in the UK this week and have seen examples of properties three hours from London which are failing to achieve the same prices as a decade ago.

Driven overwhelmingly by London and the south east, the long run quarterly data showed that nationally prices are only 7 per cent above their Q3 2007 peak.


London & SE continue to outpace by "wide margin"

Unsurprisingly the capital city recorded the strongest price growth for the fifth year on the bounce at 12.2 per cent, with London houses prices now fully 50 per cent above their 2007 peak.


London has experienced massive employment growth, with the number of people in employment now 14 per cent higher than even at the 2007 peak.

In the regions away from the capital, unemployment is higher, and house price growth has been weak.

The house price gap between the south and north of England keeps on growing, widening by £23,000 over the year to £159,000, up from only £65,000 one decade ago.

While excluded from the quarterly data above, the worst performing index has been that of Northern Ireland where prices remain 44 per cent below their 2007 bubble peak, although prices are now rising again.

UK house prices are expected to rise further by around 6 per cent in 2016.