Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Friday, 29 January 2016

Export prices tumbled in Q4

Commodities struggling

There has been some slightly more upbeat news for some commodities in recent days. 

The gold price is back up to US$1,115/oz, iron ore has ticked up a little to US$41.50/tonne, and perhaps most notably the oil price gained another +3.7 per cent overnight to sit back at US$33.47/barrel. 

Still no joy for base metals though, and the big picture for the last quarter was a continuation of the decline. 

Export prices tumble

The ABS released its International Trade prices data yesterday, which showed that import prices ticked down by -0.3 per cent in the final quarter of the year largely driven by cheaper petroleum, to be up by +2.4 per cent over the calendar year (from a reported +3.5 per cent in Q3).

Australia's major import items based upon contribution are road vehicles, petroleum, machinery & equipment, and telecommunications equipment. 

Export prices just kept sliding, down by another -5.4 per cent in the final quarter of the year to be -10.3 per cent lower over the year. 

The falls in the export price index over the fourth quarter were driven by declines in the prices of metal ores (-8.8 per cent), coal (-6.3 per cent), petroleum (-15.8 per cent), non-ferrous metals (-9.6 per cent), cereals (-9.1 per cent), meat (-4.9 per cent) and gas (-4.2 per cent).

Which is to say, more or less everything, and the annual figures tell a similar story.

Australia's main export items are iron ore, coal, gas, and gold, while meat has enjoyed a large uplift in the Asian export market in recent times. 

In short we may be selling things in ever greater volumes as the production phase of the mining boom ramps up, but the prices we are getting for them are coming back down to earth with a thud.