Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Dollar driven demographics

Rebalancing

The lower dollar continues to work away on Arrivals & Departures trends, with a further +1.8 per cent seasonally adjusted increase in the number of short term arrivals in November, and a -2.8 per cent decrease in the equivalent number of departures. 

The monthly ratio of short term departures this continues to decline, which will act as a twin boost for the domestic economy.



The labour market is not presently strong enough to warrant the exceedingly high level of net permanent and long term immigration seen in 2013 of above 400,000.

The rolling annual figure is now seemingly getting set to stabilise - in November the rolling annual total ticked down slightly from 278,200 to 277,600, with the decline being felt most keenly in the resources states and the regions, as opposed to the largest capital cities.


The most recent forecasts from the Department of Immigration & Border Protection (DIBP) show that the population growth rebound for the remainder of this decade will be driven by international students rather than by immigrants on 457 or permanent resident visas. 

Record Chinese tourism

The annual number of short term arrivals into Australia surged to a new record high of 7.36 million in November.

There have been significant increases in the number of visitors from India (+19 per cent) and the United States (+9 per cent) over the past year, Americans doubtless encouraged by favurable shifts in the exchange rate.

There can no doubting the key trend here, however, which has been the vast +17 per cent increase in the number of visitors from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan to 1.36 million. 

The pace and scale of the increase over the past decade has been breathtaking, as documented regularly on this blog.


For the first time China alone accounted for more than 1 million visitors in the year to November, and make no mistake, Chinese tourists spend up big when they come to Australia. 

Students

A record 3.38 million persons came to Australia for a holiday over the year, while for the first time this year more than 2 million cited there reason for journey as "visiting friends and relatives", reflective of Australia's status as a country built on immigration.


The other key trend to watch this year is the explosion in the number of international students, not least because following a streamlining of the acceptance rules so many are expected to go on to become permanent residents on other visas.

This data series confirmed that the rolling annual number of education arrivals jumped by an unprecedented +71,200 or +18 per cent to 464,600 in the year to November. 


Most students are projected to be accepted into the large capital cities. Read more on the latest DIBP forecasts here