Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Tuesday, 8 December 2015

Retail growth above 5 year average

Retail above 5 year average

Retail Trade grew at a solid +0.5 per cent clip in October, a promising start to the fourth quarter for household consumption. Given the weakness in commodities and trade, it will be needed. 

The annual growth in retail turnover is now tracking above its five decade average at +3.8 per cent.

Stores bounce

Department stores haven't had such a great time of it in recent years, but have at least benefited from a strong +3.5 per cent seasonally adjusted increase in October. Household goods (+1.1 per cent) and food retail (+0.6 per cent) mostly accounted for the remainder of the gains. 

Over the year it has been household goods retail that has led the way, largely thanks to the housing boom in Sydney and Melbourne. The Reserve Bank may need house price growth to continue in 2016 to in order to facilitate the "handover".

Online retail contributed 3 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms.

State versus state

At the state level New South Wales (+0.8 per cent), Victoria (+0.5 per cent) and Queensland (+0.5 per cent) all had a strong month in October in seasonally adjusted terms. 

Victoria appears to be picking up the mantle from New South Wales, while many indicators have shown that the economy of Tasmania has at last shown signs of life. 

Overall, a robust result for retail trade, reflecting above average consumer confidence and easy monetary policy.