Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Tuesday, 15 December 2015

London +10 per cent in 2015

London leads again

Another year in UK property markets is drawing to a close, as Rightmove releases its final house price index for the calendar year.

Typically prices show a sharp seasonal decline in the final month of the year, but this was not so much in evidence this year as the index recorded its smallest decline since all the way back 2006 at just -1.1 per cent. 

As a result year-on-year asking prices nationally accelerated to +7.4 per cent. 

Over the dozen years since December 2003 asking prices in London have increased by +138.4 per cent, as compared to +69.2 per cent for prices nationally (which, of course, themselves have been skewed higher by London and the South East).

Yet again the strongest gains in 2015 were seen in London (+9.9 per cent) and the South East (+9.2 per cent), with the East of England (+9.2 per cent) also recording strong annual gains. 

Mass migration into London and the south east and a housinh shortage continues to see house price gains focussed very heavily on that part of the country.

There have been a whole raft of taxation and stamp duty measures taken to cool the Buy to Let sector, some of which will actually pull forward demand ahead of new tax year.

However, with stock on market still under-clubbing demand, it is little surprise that Rightmove forecasts further strong gains in 2016, with new seller asking prices nationally expected to rise by +6 per cent.

Dr. Alasdair Rae of the University of Sheffield predicts that in 2016 London house prices will see urban professionals relocating to places like Scotland, Wales, or the north of England. 

As a born and bred Sheffielder, I would love to believe this, but migration follows employment and investment, which remains far too centred upon the capital. I expect more of the same in 2016, wuth gains increasingly focussed on lower priced boroughs in response to policy shifts.