Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Wednesday, 23 December 2015

China stocks - the year that was

Bubble & burst

If you had predicted that China stocks would outperform other prominent indices to rise by about 13 per cent in 2015, then so it has been.

Yet it has been quite some rollercoaster year for Chinese stocks, with a huge run-up in valuations which had become disconnected from all fundamentals, an alarming crash in the middle of the year, a slew of "interventionary" measures, and then a tentative recovery.

After the peak of the bubble on June 11, the market lost close to a third of its value within a month as newly leveraged investors were hit with margin calls, the index falling by 30 per cent by July 8.

After a few preliminary interventionary measures, the index crashed again by more than 8 per cent on August 24, and backed that up with another similar decline of a similar magnitude the following day.

It is easy enough to smirk about the "tinned food" and "find a safe place with loved ones" recommendations now, but global investors were certainly spooked at the time, reflected in the uneasy reaction of world markets. 

Following a couple of dozen government measures including putting a stop to IPOs, the banning of short selling, restrictions on ownership and selling, suspensions of trading, and a whole raft of other actions, the crash was eventually arrested.

China stocks may be looking set to finish the year up about 13 per cent, but it's been anything but plain sailing this year.