Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Friday, 20 November 2015

UK property surge

UK property update

There are a range of different indices and reports relating to UK property these days - and the latest indicate a property price increase in 2016, with some forecasters anticipating that prices will rise until 2020.

Firstly, Rightmove's Asking Prices Index, which is not seasonally adjusted, recorded its smallest November decline since 2011, which "sets the scene for higher prices in 2016", recording a year-on-year increase of +6.2 per cent (London +8.1 per cent, East of England +10.4 per cent, South East +7.2 per cent).


The latest Office for National Statistics index, widely considered to be the most reliable, showed the average UK house price rising to a new high, being up by +6.1 per cent over the year to September.


London prices increased to a new high of £531,000. 


Meanwhile the Hometrack 20 Capital Cities Index showed annual price gains moving up to +9.4 per cent and set to reach 10 per cent by year end. 

While there has been a recent acceleration from a low base in large regional cities such as Glasgow, Edinburgh, Liverpool and Manchester, as anticipated here the strongest gains since the 2007 peak have been seen in Cambridge (+44.7 per cent) and London (+44.4 per cent). 

Regional cities have lagged the capital city London (plus its Cambridge and Oxford satellites) by a wide margin. 


Many of these indices are backward-looking, but the latest mortgage approvals data have pointed the strongest mortgage demand since 2008, with volumes up by 19 per cent over the past year. 

With consumer price inflation nowhere to be seen and interest rates stuck at the effective zero lower bound further price gains are forecast.