Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Thursday, 11 June 2015

Sydney property in the news

Sydney red hot

Some of what is happening in Sydney's property market is "crazy" said Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens in his Brisbane presentation yesterday.

He's not wrong there.

But house prices in Sydney won't stop the Reserve Bank cutting interest rates lower still as required, he said.

Any way you look at it, Sydney's desirable property markets are expensive...and they are going to remain so.

John McGrath highlighted a few out the reasons why last week on Switzer here.

"Sydney’s population is expected to reach 6.1 million in 2031, which means 80,000 new people will move here each year.

Based on the assumption of 1.5 people per dwelling (in recognition of the rise in apartment living), Sydney will need 53,000 new dwellings per year.

The HIA says 54,000 new dwellings will commence in NSW in 2015 – but that’s for the entire state. That’s also a record high figure, with annual new builds expected to decline to 47,000 per year over the next four years."

I'm not quite sure where the assumption of 1.5 persons per dwellings came from, but the principal is spot on.

In the most desirable areas of Sydney demand is outstripping available supply by a factor of many as covered here previously.

SBS News lead with a short piece on the story here yesterday,

I note that Demographia's measures of housing affordability have previously been criticised for not including all dwellings (i.e for excluding apartments and attached dwellings).

Yes, any way you look at it Sydney housing is expensive, but that said I don't expect anything to change in that regard over the next couple of decades.

Watch the SBS News piece here.