Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

'Huge fan of your work. Very impressive!' - Scott Pape, The Barefoot Investor, Australia's #1 bestseller.

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the finest analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Business Insider.

'I've been investing 40 years yet still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the finest young commentators' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

'The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate - loads of good data & charts...most comprehensive analyst I follow in Oz' - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, 2 x NYT bestseller.

Sunday, 1 February 2015

US GDP +2.6 percent

US grows at 2.6 percent in Q4

I recently wrote a short blog post here about the importance of the US economic recovery to global growth in 2015.

The US accounts for nearly a fifth share of global GDP so its influence is huge.

This is particularly so given the challenges facing a number of the other big players in the G20, such as Russia and a number of European countries.

A couple of days late on this, but the US economy grew at an estimated 2.6 percent pace in the fourth quarter:



Reported the US Bureau of Economic Analysis:

"Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 5.0 percent."

This represented a slower result than the third quarter, but consumer spending did increase to its fastest pace since 2006, which was encouraging.


In any case, the huge collapse in the price of gasoline is likely to help the US economy accelerate again through 2015.



Charted below is the real growth in GDP in 2009 chained dollars.

This shows the dramatic impact on the economy of the financial crisis and the slow recovery since.

For the whole of 2014, the US economy grew at 2.4 percent in real terms.


That's a solid result.

Meanwhile consumer spending increased at a 4.3 percent pace in the fourth quarter, well up from the 3.2 percent pace of the third quarter, and the best result since before the financial crisis.

On the downside, capex was softer in Q4 and the trade deficit widened a little.

I had a look here at average jobs growth in the US over the past 6 years, which suggests a compelling case that the US economic recovery remains on track, despite that recovery being a long slow haul.