Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Sunday, 1 February 2015

US GDP +2.6 percent

US grows at 2.6 percent in Q4

I recently wrote a short blog post here about the importance of the US economic recovery to global growth in 2015.

The US accounts for nearly a fifth share of global GDP so its influence is huge.

This is particularly so given the challenges facing a number of the other big players in the G20, such as Russia and a number of European countries.

A couple of days late on this, but the US economy grew at an estimated 2.6 percent pace in the fourth quarter:

Reported the US Bureau of Economic Analysis:

"Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 5.0 percent."

This represented a slower result than the third quarter, but consumer spending did increase to its fastest pace since 2006, which was encouraging.

In any case, the huge collapse in the price of gasoline is likely to help the US economy accelerate again through 2015.

Charted below is the real growth in GDP in 2009 chained dollars.

This shows the dramatic impact on the economy of the financial crisis and the slow recovery since.

For the whole of 2014, the US economy grew at 2.4 percent in real terms.

That's a solid result.

Meanwhile consumer spending increased at a 4.3 percent pace in the fourth quarter, well up from the 3.2 percent pace of the third quarter, and the best result since before the financial crisis.

On the downside, capex was softer in Q4 and the trade deficit widened a little.

I had a look here at average jobs growth in the US over the past 6 years, which suggests a compelling case that the US economic recovery remains on track, despite that recovery being a long slow haul.