Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Friday, 6 February 2015

Strong gains for Sydney in 2015 (+50 percent in 3 years?)

From Property Observer yesterday:

SQM's Louis Christopher considers that this week's interest rate cut could lead to Sydney dwelling prices recording enormous gains of 50 percent across only 3 years:

"Christopher's confidence in the Sydney market remains, particularly given the Reserve Bank's February announcement that it would cut rates by 25 basis points to a record low of 2.25%.

"We believe Tuesday's interest rate cut will further stimulate the Sydney housing market through the full calendar year 2015," Christopher told Property Observer.

"Our forecast for this current year, made back in September 2014, would be a rise of between 8-12%."

"This assumed a stable interest rate environment. With this rate cut we believe the market will now likely increase by the upper end of this range.

"Sydney on top of the 30% gains we have had since the start of 2013 will mean the market may well be up by over 50% in Sydney in just three years."

As the article notes, my forecasts were softer, while noting acknowledging the risks of an upside overshoot.

Although when the forecasts were made I did feel interest rates would probably fall, I hadn't expected that we would see a 2 percent cash rate early in the year, which we now might.

Long way to go, though...