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Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyers & WargentAdvisory (subscription market analysis for institutional clients).
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Pete Wargent blogspot
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).
4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.
"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.
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Wednesday, 4 February 2015
RBA Chart Pack day
Chart Pack for January out
The Reserve Bank just released its Chart Pack for the month of January 2015 which always makes for an interesting read.
Below are a handful of the more interesting observations.
Firstly, any real or imaginary inflationary pressures do appear to be easing, suggesting that very low interest rates are indeed likely to be the order of the day across the next two years.
Manic-depressive mining sector
The mining sector is a dichotomy indeed.
As looked at often here previously, mining capital expenditure is set to take a nose-dive over the next two years.
Non-mining capex has picked up a little in response to interest rate cuts, but it's a tall order to plug the gap that the collapse in resources construction will leave behind.
On the production front, Australia is absolutely going bulk commodities bananas - talk about a leveraged economy!
Of course, Australia is exporting ever greater volumes of these resources into an ever more depressed commodities market at the present time.
A lower dollar would certainly be of assistance to this awkward dynamic!
Household debt levels have begun to creep up again in response to lower borrowing rates.
With the banks now passing on yesterday's interest rate cut - a generous 28bps in Westpac's case - the interest paid on household debt is probably set to remain at around 9 percent of household disposable income (on average).
Interest repayments are doubtless tough for some, but serviceability is close to a third better than it was previously, on average.
House prices are rising, largely driven by Sydney and Brisbane...in that order.
Share markets are salivating at the anticipating of lower rates too, and yield plays seem likely to thrive.
The RBA's latest Chart Pack only runs until January 29, but share markets have gone on a tear for the last nine trades, adding very substantial gains in many cases.
This short blog post from a couple of years ago explains why I generally prefer industrials to resources stocks, despite the boom in the resources index from the turn of the century.
Industrials and financials are now at long last redressing the balance, particularly those with a dollar exposure.
Overall, it's a very interesting set of charts which paints a picture of a struggling economy lacking in business or consumer confidence and demand.
And it's for that reason that futures markets are pricing in implied yields of below 2 percent for the next 18 months - we are set for a period of interest rates considered unthinkably low only a few years ago.
There are some shining lights, mainly residential construction and export volumes, but forecasts are likely to anticipate sub-trend economic growth for some time ahead yet.
You can view the rest of the RBA's Chart Pack here.