Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Wednesday, 25 February 2015

FTSE record high

Low rates are inflating global share markets

New record highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in the US overnight, closing up yet further at 18,209.

And now the FTSE 100 will also lead to obligatory "partying like its 1999" headlines in the British tabloids as it closed at a new record. 

When I was at Uni in the late 1990s  there was a good deal of debate taking place as to whether the FTSE could ever reach 7,000, the index surging to a tech bubble inspired peak of 6,930 by the turn of the century.

Cohabiting in a student flat in freezing Sheffield in the north of England there was also lively debate as to how Australians as depicted on Neighbours could seemingly be employed as waiters and casual barstaff yet afford to live in enormous detached houses on Erinsborough's sunny Ramsay Street (cf. Jarrod "Toadfish" Rebecchi who worked in the coffee shop in 1997, became a barman in 1999 and later became one of the hotel staff at "Lassiters").

A decade-an-a-half on and the FTSE has finally broken a new record high of 6,943.63, although market valuations are a notably little less stretched this time around. 


Total returns

There is a good deal of misinformation surrounding share markets, and it is important to recognise here that total returns have been a good deal stronger than implied by the capital return index.

If dividend returns are included in the returns this would add nearly 2,500 to the capital return index since 1999, and as such an equivalent total return index for the period since that time would sit comfortably above 9,300.

Alas, the world moves on and I've long since lost touch with the latest Neighbours news and views - according to the internet "Toadie" has been a lawyer since 2003, although it is unclear from my research whether he still lives on Ramsay Street.

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Some key data releases are due out this morning and tomorrow morning.