Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Tuesday, 27 January 2015

Sydney property to rise 8 to 12 percent in 2015

Louis Christopher of SQM Research doesn't often get too much wrong with his market forecasts.

Christopher sees 8 to 12 percent capital growth for Sydney in 2015 - and if interest rates are cut, Sydney will be in "yet another bull market for the full year".

From the latest SQM Research newsletter:

"The Darwin market is in a full blown slump. The negativity going on in Darwin, has been getting worse.

Vacancy rates have continued to rise over summer, rents on our numbers are now down 14% and are in a clear downtrend as shown by this chart
Sydney on the other hand is still looking strong.  

Over recent summers (and including this one) we have been getting the usual commentary from the usual suspects stating the market is about to slow down, is slowing down, etc. 

It is increasingly feeling like the boys who cried wolf. 

Sooner or later they will be right but right now, a slowdown currently happening in Sydney? Hardly. 

I frequently speak with trusted agents with Sydney and I spent the Xmas period doing just that. 

All were reporting active buyers even right through that Xmas/New year week. Business was strong for them.

Now invariably a slowdown will come. 

The market cannot keep growing at a rate of 15% forever. 

Our forecast for this current financial year was 8-12% and I see nothing in the market to suggest it will be below that range. 

If the rate cut comes it will be yet another bull market for Sydney for the full calendar year.

My forecast for the opening of the Sydney auction season: Clearance rates will rise from the closing levels of the high 60s in December. The Sydney auction market will most likely open up in the early to mid 70s.”