Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Wednesday, 7 January 2015

Long Slow March to Zero?

Interest rates to fall

If you were following my blog in 2014 you will recall a healthy level of scepticism that interest rates would be merrily heading higher again in 2015 as was being widely forecast at that time.

Indeed I left one of our futures markets implied yield curve charts "frozen in time" at October 3 (see below) to show just how optimistic the market was in expecting rate hikes at that time.

It has taken markets a fairly long time to come around but check out what is being priced in now - two full interest rate cuts and the yield curve remaining inverted all the way through until H2 2016.

February contracts are trading at 97.55 - essentially implying only a 1-in-5 chance of a rate cut as soon as next month - but further easing is considered to be almost a certainty by the middle of this calendar year.

While on the theme of predicting the future, our "base case" property market forecasts for 2015 were relatively moderate, but 50bps of interest rate cuts early on this year could be an obvious game-changer and would be likely to result in bumper dwelling price growth and an overshoot in some cities. 

In other interesting news, oil prices are below $50 - a good time to fill up the car. 


NASA aerial image of the Adelaide bushfires...

Source: NASA