Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Thursday, 22 January 2015

Highest Unit Sales Since September 2003

Unit sales volumes hotting up

While this is of course a daft over-simplification at the macro level, one of the lead indicators of dwelling price growth can be a pick-up in volumes.

The New Home Sales data from the Housing Industry Association (HIA) is a reasonably useful data set which acts as a decent bellwether for a number of market trends, including dwelling investment and construction.

New home sales increased by another 2.2 percent in November following a neat rise of 3 percent in October. 

The HIA does not believe that this trend will be reversed in December either, with strength in the multi-unit sector in particular set to persist well into 2015.

It is notable that while the uplift through the cycle has been driven by sales of both houses and attached dwellings, the data of late has shifted heavily towards a surge in unit and apartment transactions.

Indeed while detached housing dales dipped by 1.5 percent in November new unit and apartment sales in October and November tracked up to the highest level seen since Q3 2003. 

In the month of November 2014 the trend in new detached house sales results were strongest in Queensland, which saw a substantial 16 percent lift.


While this may indicate that low interest rates are biting further and encouraging investors into the housing market, as a general rule buying new or off-the-plan apartments can be a relatively expensive exercise and developer premiums may lead to sub-optimal investment returns.

Which, of course, is a polite way of saying "over-priced". 

Generally investors find superior value in established dwelling stock (and properties that have already been built!).