Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Thursday, 22 January 2015

Falling Rates ("Double-Tap"?)

BoC goes again

The Bank of Canada (BoC) shocked markets by chopping its overnight lending rate today by a quarter of a percent to just 0.75 percent.

Canada's overnight rate had been stuck at 1 percent since September 2010, but oil prices plummeting in half clearly helped to precipitate a shift in policy stance.

RBA to follow suit?

It has certainly taken Aussie markets a long time to come around, but it seems we're getting close to being on the same page now with markets expecting the official cash rate to fall to just 2 percent and appearing likely to stay there until the second half of 2016.

While a rate cut as soon as February is still only considered to be around a 1-in-3 shot, the odds are increasing with each trading day that passes, with soft Q4 2014 inflation data perhaps expected on January 28 to help the rate cut cause.

ASX 30 day interbank cash rate futures February contracts are trading at 97.57, implying a yield of 2.43 percent and indicating a 31 percent expectation of a cut on February 3.

Regardless of whether rates are cut as soon as February, it seems that markets are envisaging a cut in the next few months as almost a "sure thing", with three of the four major banks calling for cuts now too.

The cash rate futures implied yield curve has taken on a markedly different shape in recent months.

It looks as though we may be heading down, which would obviously be a significant boon to property markets.