Real-time thoughts & analysis of the markets, economy & more...
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyers & WargentAdvisory (subscription market analysis for institutional clients).
Check us out here
TO COME AND SEE ME SPEAK LIVE IN SYDNEY - see www.quadrant2.net
Pete Wargent blogspot
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).
4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.
"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.
"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.
"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.
"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.
"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.
Saturday, 24 January 2015
No go zones for investors
As promised, the first of a series of posts to follow on where NOT to buy property investments in Brisbane.
Forecasting house BIS Shrapnel has predicted that Brisbane's housing market will experience capital growth of 17 percent over the next 3 years, a view widely shared by many experienced analysts.
As investors, of course, the basic idea is to select property types and locations which will experience growth which is stronger than the averages, and to supercharge returns by buying at the right price or undertaking a renovation.
There are, however, a number of locations which are set to see a glut of new medium- and high-rise apartments which we strongly recommend avoiding.
Invest in these locations and a sub-optimal result is all but assured, with some downside risks also inherent.
Let us commence then, with the most obvious of the lot - the Central Business District (CBD) itself.
While there is some demand for living in inner city Brisbane part of the time - including from people such as myself - there is certainly not this much demand...
No, that's not Hong Kong, it's Brisbane...right next to the Story Bridge.
What the CBD certainly does not need is another record-breaking tower block, the like of which has never to date been seen in Brisbane.
Below is a photo of the unassuming site at 222 Margaret Street - at the moment a mere empty block comprising a few shrubs - but soon to be the tallest residential tower Brisbane has ever seen, aka. the creatively named Brisbane SkyTower.
An obvious oversupply of high-rise apartments will eventuate, many of which are constructed solely for the purpose of selling to investors in Asia rather than meeting a genuine existing demand from the rental market.
There are a number of other suburbs and locations which we see as equivalent risk areas and these will be covered on this blog in due course.
What these photos do not adequately convey, however, is just how humid Brisbane is this Australia Day weekend.