Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the finest property analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Business Insider.

"I've been investing 40 years yet I still learned new concepts; one of the finest young commentators" - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

'The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate - loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia...follow Pete Wargent' - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, 2 x NYT bestseller.

'Superlative work' - Grant Williams, founder RealVision.

Friday, 26 December 2014

Xmas

Blighty...

Merry Xmas from a the Old Dart (spending some time round at me Mum's this Xmas - ahh) where the bookies will not be paying out on a "white Christmas" event this year - in fact it's a positively glorious and sunny day in the environs of London, where sadly Boxing Day sales are all but underway already!

A sublime gift for a history geek like myself - more than 1,300 pages of Peter Ackroyd - which should make the 24+ hour return flight to Australia marginally more tolerable.


Year Closes

It's been a quite amazing year in many ways.

In Sydney we have seen house prices continue to boom by more than 17 percent over the last 12 months and apartment prices by around 14 percent. 

It has not been such a good year if you invested in iron ore mining companies, though, and it was quite apt that prices finished the last trade at their lowest point in 5.5 years down at a painful US $66/tonne.

This will lead to the Western Australian government cutting or deferring iron ore royalties on a case by case basis in order to keep the state's junior miners afloat - a fair few juniors will not be breaking even at these prices.

In the meantime producers are scaling back production levels by millions of tonnes.


Expect that the Aussie dollar (now down to 81 cents) and interest rates may have further to fall in the first half of 2015.

On the plus side there was a huge upwards revision for the US economy this week, where growth is now reportedly tracking at a booming 5 percent pace on an annualised basis.

This has sent US stock valuations to yet another record high with the Dow Jones incredibly zooming past 18,000 for the first time in history. 

More on this tomorrow.

We'll also publish our property price forecasts by capital city for 2015 later this week, where we expect another big year for Sydney where upwards momentum has not stopped, with Hobart and particularly Brisbane to be the other outperformers in the year ahead.

Most other cities we expect to be considerably softer in 2015.

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In keeping with the south of England theme for this blog post, a UK #3 Christmas hit from 1980.  Jona Lewie's protest song was kept from the number 1 slot by John Lennon who had been murdered earlier in that year.

Cheers & thanks for reading for another year! PW