Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Wednesday, 17 December 2014

McGrath Sees 20% More Sydney Price Growth

McGrath Tips Sydney and Brisbane

John McGrath envisages up to 20 percent more dwelling price growth through the remainder of this cycle in Sydney as well as nothing his high hopes for the Brisbane market from 2015 forth.

Probably right too given that mortgage rates are still set to head lower rather than higher, but with an obvious caveat - future growth won't be spread evenly across suburbs and property types, so if you own or buy rubbish then you clearly won't see 20 percent growth, period.

Cash Rate Futures

Of late we've been benchmarking the implied cash rate futures yield curve against the equivalent readings for early October as a means of highlighting the downward shift in sentiment which has largely been brought about by tumbling commodity prices.

Only a 22 percent chance of a cut is priced in for February with 30 Day February 2014 contracts trading at 97.55.

May contracts on the other hand...

The market sees at least one interest rate cut in 2015, and possibly more.

Vacancy Rates

SQM Research released its vacancy rates figures today for the month of November 2014.

Typically we might expect to see a seasonal Christmassy spike in vacancies - SQM's Louis Christopher noted that for a variety of reasons this tends to happen around this time of year.

Certainly there has been a big uplift in vacancies in Darwin and Perth, no doubt partly due to the unwinding of the mining construction boom.

The southern state capitals of Adelaide and Hobart now clearly have tight rental markets now following a dearth of construction or dwelling price gains.

As for Sydney's mythical oversupply, well there's still no sign of that either on a city-wide basis with the vacancy rate stuck at just 1.7 percent, although this headline figure will rise in 2015 as a surfeit of high-density stock is constructed in the inner south.

The "National" vacancy rate therefore ticked up to 2.2 percent.

SQM's rental index showed rents declining significantly in Canberra, Perth and Darwin. Sydney's house and apartment rents continue to rise strongly for yet another year, another clear indicator that there is no market oversupply. Elsewhere, rents have been relatively flat.