So the ADP was a pretty good indicator after all, and the US jobs report was yet again another corker, seeing another 288,000 jobs added:
"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 288,000 in June, and the unemployment rate
declined to 6.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Job gains were widespread, led by employment growth in professional and business services, retail trade, food services and drinking places, and health care."
That's now 5 months in a row of 200k+ jobs added and an incredible 44 consecutive months of jobs growth which is closing in on a record.
Heartening to note jobs being added across a wide range of sectors.
The unemployment rate tumbled all the way to 6.1%, from 6.3% previous (and double digit levels at the peak):
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Great to see, and further evidence that low interest rates and quantitative easing work.
The corresponding danger is that asset prices are also thrown higher.
In the UK, for example, London house prices (and indeed, most house prices) are accelerating.
Meanwhile in the US, the Dow Jones (DJIA) has been flung way over 17,000 overnight, the S&P 500 is a bee's appendage away from 2,000 and the NASDAQ is now trading at levels not seen since the exuberant days of the tech stock bubble nearly a decade and a half ago.
Of course, there is a risk that market valuations begin to unravel when QE is taken away and interest rate hikes begin to be price in...which is precisely why the economy will be weaned off the bond-buying program over a period of time.
Unemployment down to 6.1%. Wonderful news.