Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Wednesday, 16 July 2014

Here comes the resi construction boom!

Well, it took a while coming, but here we are!

Australia's residential construction boom is now underway.

The "constrained supply" conspiracy theory has been undermined with dwelling commencements heading for all-time record highs piggy-backing off an uplift in dwelling prices and record low interest rates.

The principle restriction of new supply was due to prices not being high enough to motivate developers or stimulate construction, as well documented frequently on this blog, and indeed by the Reserve Bank itself.

Lo and behold, as prices have risen and interest rates have been cut, dwellings commenced are now increasing very sharply.

Nationally, 27,322 houses were commenced in the quarter, a figure which looks set to threaten record highs.

And units and apartments easily smashed the highest number of commencements in Aussie history, coming in at well over 20,000 for the March quarter (click chart):


The total number of dwelling commencements is up by more than 22% in a year - no constrained supply there.

That's the biggest annual increase in a dozen years since 2002.

I won't upload our entire chart pack here - if you want more details on where we see oversupply risk please email us at sydney@allenwargent.com 

The main areas of oversupply will be for apartments with the rolling annual number of commencements shattering another record high, now hitting a whopping 74,751 (click chart):


Completions are also tracking at very high levels with 39,830 completions in the quarter, the highest level since the June 2011 quarter.

This is all great news for the Reserve Bank which wants to stimulate construction activity to offset the fall in mining capex.

The value of new residential building increased by a seasonally adjusted 8.5% y/y.

The value of all residential work done (including alterations, additions and conversions) is increasing very rapidly on a seasonally adjusted basis, and is set to hit record highs (click chart):


In terms of all building work done, which includes new resi building, alterations and additions, and non-residential building, the Australian construction boom is being driven by a massive increase in activity in New South Wales.

NSW is a thriving economy and is set to drive forward economic growth over the next couple of years.

Some other locations have economies which are set to stagnate or go backwards in coming years (click chart).


As noted, these are just a few of the interesting points arising from our chart pack, but there's much more of note besides, particularly on the house and apartment commencements at the state level.