Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Saturday, 12 July 2014

Economy, wages to keep growing in 2014/15

The Business Day Mid-year Economic Survey results are in, and the consensus of 25 economists see continuing economic growth in 2015 for the Aussie economy, including:

-Australia GDP growth of +2.8% in 2014/15

-Cash rate at June 2015 of just 2.69% (consensus)

-Wages price index +2.9%

-Unemployment rate December 2014 of 6.0% (today 6.0%)

-Underlying inflation to June 2015 +2.6%

Economists also expect share prices to move a little higher by 30 June 2015, with the consensus seeing the XJO (ASX 200) moving to above 5,800.

Household spending in 2014 is expected to rise +2.6%, while housing investment should increase nicely by +7.4%.

China's GDP for the year to December 2014 is expected to be 7.3%, but the terms of trade could decline by -4.9%.

Debt crisis?

As for the so-called debt crisis (lol), economists were scathing, dismissing the notion as "an abuse of the English language" (Saul Eslake).

Shane Oliver, Chief Economist of AMP, noted: "Australia is not facing a budget crisis or a public debt crisis".

Chris Caton of BT Financial said that it was "simply absurd" to suggest that Australia has too much government debt.

Housing bubble?

Caton also added that while higher house prices would no doubt be a problem for some buyers, "housing is not a major macro problem. There is no housing bubble waiting to burst".

Saul Eslake said a housing market correction was "unlikely to eventuate as household debt is not unsustainably high".

Permabear economist Steven Keen said that there should have been a correction, but the government is supporting house prices and this could lead to increased sales to foreign buyers.

Eslake noted that house price rises over the past decade had been caused by restrictions on supply and generous tax breaks such as negative gearing.