Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Thursday, 3 July 2014

AFG mortage index reveals roaring NSW market

An interesting release from Australia's largest mortgage aggregator Australian Finance Group, showing some notable trends in the Aussie property market.

The index is highly seasonal, of course, as we are now into the cold winter months - and most certainly in Sydney we are!

Stripping out seasonality, mortgage demand sits some 23% higher than it was a year ago.

Even allowing for any possible shifts in AFG's market share, this implies a huge annualised uplift in mortgages sold (click chart):


The average mortgage size by state shows that how it has been New South Wales and specifically Sydney which has driven the property boom over the past 18 months.

Queensland has also been a strong performer over the 12 months from July 2013.

Elsewhere, markets have been solid enough, but relatively much more subdued (click chart):


One trend we are watching is the role of investors by state, and in particular whether investors will spread their wings to look at the Sunshine State of Queensland next up in seeking yield and value.

There has been an uplift in the share of investors in the Queensland market, but Sydney remains the speculator's paradise with more than 45% of the mortgage market being sen up by investment purchases (click chart):


In terms of mortgages sold for the state, New South Wales demand has ripped upwards by +33% y/y, despite the low number of reported first homebuyers.

It will be interesting to see if NSW mortgage demand resumes its upwards trajectory from July through to December as it did in 2013 (click chart):


Overall, a strong release, and stripping out seasonality mortgage demand appears to remain in a secular uptrend which has been in place since 2011.