Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Sunday, 29 June 2014

Week ahead

The past two weeks have been slow for news, but not so the next fortnight with a whole raft of data heading our way.

Of particular interest will be retail trade release, the monthly labour force data as always, and the building approvals (+8pc for the year expected here) and housing finance figures.

One thing to watch out for this week will be the Engineering Construction Activity data, which is set to be released on Wednesday.

To me, this appears likely to reveal more detail on the challenges facing Western Australia and Queensland as mining construction activity passes its peak in the March quarter (click chart):


After a huge run-up in the value of construction activity during the past decade, which kept Australia's economy happily afloat through the financial crisis and beyond, mining construction looks set to wane quite dramatically in the years ahead as the resources boom transitions to the production phase. 

If you look at the thunderous increase in activity since the turn of the century, you can see why the mining states face a tricky transition period (click chart):


There hasn't been a lot to say on share markets of late as they have simply been ticking along nicely, but we will probably take a look at what's been going on there in a bit more detail too.

In terms of the broader economy in Q2, it appears likely that net exports will continue to contribute to growth, but with iron ore prices having declined sharply, the contribution should be plenty less than the thumping 1.4% growth contributed in Q1.

Meanwhile, neither household consumption nor dwelling construction appear likely to deliver thrilling results.

With the usual caveats around the impossibility of forecasting GDP, one might expect to see the economy growing by perhaps ~0.5pc in the second quarter (and thus ~3.1pc over the past year). 

Slowly but surely, the hawkish calls for rate hikes have been dropping off as growth appears likely to dwindle this quarter. 

With wages growth and hence inflation expectations remaining soft, the next interest rate hike seems to be as far away as it ever was (click chart):