Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Tuesday, 17 June 2014

Vacant

Interesting release from SQM Research this week detailing vacancy rates by capital city for the month of May 2014.

Nationally, SQM recorded vacancy rates as having fallen marginally to 2.2% in the month, which compares to 2.0% from the corresponding prior period in 2013 (click chart):


Melbourne continues to notch the highest vacancy rates largely thanks to the city having built so many apartments over the last decade.

It doesn't appear to have quelled dwelling price growth in existing stock too effectively to date, but perhaps that will filter through in due course. 

The most significant increase in vacancy rates over the past year was recorded in Perth as the mining construction boom transitions to mining export boom in Western Australia, just as it does elsewhere.

It used to be said in days gone by that a market "in equilibrium" had a vacancy rate of around 3%, but that old rule thumb seems to have tiptoed out of vogue now. 

Notably, there are a number of markets with exceptionally tight vacancy rates, which now include most of Darwin in the Northern Territory, parts of Adelaide in South Australia and Sydney in New South Wales.

Darwin has been a wretchedly tight market for years, while Sydney's headline figure of only 1.7% disguises that the outer suburbs are actually dragging the averages up.

The detailed suburb data of SQM Research (backed up by REINSW data) shows that many of Sydney's inner suburbs have extraordinarily tight vacancy rates.

This can hardly be described as surprising given the diabolical level of supply response in Sydney over the past eight years, which merely reinforce just how daft some of the apocalyptic predictions of a calamitous price correction really were.