Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Sunday, 8 June 2014

US economy adds 217,000 jobs...again (employment back to pre-crisis levels)

Recovery continues

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its non-farm payrolls data and, yet again, the US economy added a hefty 217,000 jobs in May.

And that strong figure comes off the back of another heavy print of 282,000 jobs added in April.

Total employment in the US has now returned to its pre-crisis level.

As the population has grown since that time, the unemployment level remains at 6.3%, which is a great recovery from the double digit levels of a few years ago, but shows that the recovery still has some way to run to take unemployment back down to the sub 4.5% level it was at before the recession began (click image):


Ever since the US economy recovery started a recurring theme has been bearish pundits saying that it's not a recovery.

You can keep trying to rail against it, but the numbers tell a different story, which is to say, 44 consecutive months of employment growth, which is rapidly closing in on the all time US record of 48 consecutive months.

If you think that's not a recovery, I reckon you need help reading charts.

The payroll data in the world's largest economy is strengthening, and that's great to see.

Warning shot

In spite of this, there is something to watch out for, and that is how US stock markets react when the quantitative easing stimulus is eventually wound back.

Stock markets have been rising relentlessly in the US for more than half a decade now, oftentimes both on the back of good news (recovery imminent!) and bad (more stimulus for longer!).

As a result both the Dow and S&P 500 are into uncharted territory, threatening unprecedented levels of 17,000 and 2,000 respectively.

Correction due...