Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Sunday, 1 June 2014

Real Estate Talk: Why inner-ring suburbs are better

Catch me on this week's Real Estate Talk show here where I discuss why inner- and middle-ring suburbs of the capital cities have and always will be the long term property market out-performers in Australia.

Click here to listen in.


The show goes on out on Brisbane's 4BC Radio at weekend and now has more than 40,000 online subscribers - check it out.

Inner or outer suburbs?

This is a subject I covered in some detail in Property Observer column back on  May 20 here, to the usual protests.

The counter-argument is that everyone is going to become share traders or work from home and live out in the sticks, but that doesn't hold any credibility in my opinion.

The serious journos evidently also agree.

Chris Joye

Since I wrote that piece, also check out Chris Joye's (as usual) excellent article in the Australian Financial Review on May 22 entitled "RBA: Buy in inner cities" here, where he notes:

"Locating on the fringe is relatively less attractive than it used to be because . . . many of the inner areas have become even greater job magnets in recent years.”

[The RBA's Luci Ellis] proves this point by comparing the prices of properties located in both the “inner” and “outer” rings of Australia’s cities. In Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide homes in the city’s inner ring are 1.5 to two times more expensive than those in the “outer ring”.

What is fascinating is that this inner-city price premium is expanding. “Inner-ring properties have, if anything, become more expensive relative to outer-ring properties in recent years,” Ellis says. “And the larger the city, the greater is that premium.”
The bottom line: target properties that are near major jobs markets."
Peter Martin

And today Peter Martin in his Age column here:

"Stand by for a Melbourne of 8 million, a Sydney of 8 million. And that's just the moderate projection. The high projection is for a Melbourne of 9.1 million and a Sydney of 8.3 million by the middle of the century. 

It isn't just that more of us are being born, dying later and moving here from overseas. It's also because we are incredibly reluctant to live anywhere but in our big cities.

It makes our suburbs less attractive than they used to be and our smaller cities even less so.

We are locked into Sydney and Melbourne and to a lesser extent other capitals and unlikely to leave no matter how big they become.

Already expensive, inner-city prices are soaring relative to outer prices as people begin to realise the jobs won't come to them, they'll have to move closer to the jobs. Or face ever more horrific commutes.

Investors are snapping up inner properties, forcing up prices and elbowing out owner-occupiers. It's as if many of us are realising our love of big outer suburban blocks was a mistake.

The past two censuses have asked about where our jobs are as well as where our houses are. The jobs are massively concentrated at the centre and becoming more so. And this push towards the centre pertains not only to jobs.

Getting around is going to get less and less pleasant as we move towards 8 million. We'll try to escape to the centre rather than the periphery, pushing prices in the centre ever higher."

Yup.