Nice piece from former Economics Advisor to Prime Minister Gillard, Stephen Koukoulas:
"So the smart people like Louis Christopher from SQM Research and Pete Wargent from AllenWargent property buyers were right – the dip in house prices in the 6 week people around May was seasonal. The housing market was still strong and prices were still robust even though the RPData was showing what at face value were notable price falls.
The RPData house price series now shows that prices are up 1.3 per cent so far in June (just one day to go) to largely reverse the 1.9 per cent price drop in May. In recent weeks, the price rises have been solid which suggests further seasonal increases are likely in the near term, especially with interest rates remaining near record lows.
Even the RBA was caught up, a little, with the house price fall discussion, when it noted after the June Board meeting that "dwelling prices have increased significantly over the past year, though there have been some signs of a moderation in the pace of increase recently".
Read the rest here.
We won't be right all the time, of course, and since property markets are illiquid, the timings of market movements are much harder to predict than they may appear.
But we'll never be wrong through lack of research.
Our extensive chart packs which track hundreds of metrics and are updated daily (and not only for Australia, but also for the US, UK, Europe and China) would not allow it.
For example, we could never have predicted an Adelaide property boom over the last 5 or 6 years as many experts have, because every metric - population growth, jobs growth, the unemployment rate, household formation, interstate migration, GSP, State Final Demand, private new capex, real wages growth, building approvals, housing finance, investor loan finance...everything - told a different story.
And that still continues.
When RP Data releases its June 2014 figures later this week, it will record dwelling price declines of around -0.5% for Adelaide in Q2.
On the flip side, I was comfortable calling out Sydney as the standout capital city market in my book, even after Keen had predicted a 40% crash, because the data suggested that the market fundamentals were strong.
Today being 30 June, if market consensus is right, the ABS series will confirm that Sydney dwelling prices are up by around +47pc over the past five years (click chart).
Part of the problem with a lot of (most) Aussie property market commentary is that it comes from the point of vested interest i.e. "I own a property here, so it must always be referred to as a great location to invest."
We've seen a lot of this with regards to some very ordinary regional centres and even some capital cities over the past half decade, and it appears likely that there will be more of it to come with regards to several mining towns as the resources construction boom turns to bust.
The awesome thing about comprehensive chart packs which are updated daily is that, whether you like it or not, they force you to change your opinions as the outlook shifts.
You can't easily ignore reversing trends when the daily data sets give it to you straight between the eyes.