Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Thursday, 19 June 2014

Blue day

Origin

A nail-biting win for New South Wales last night in the State of Origin in front of 84,321 at ANZ Stadium, ending an 8 year drought for the Blues.

SMH ran a nice piece showing how much the team has changed since 2005...scary!


Oz demographics - records to be set today

While on the subject of state demographics, stay tuned this morning for the latest demographic statistics data from the ABS.

Forecasting these matters is a fool's errand, of course, but I'm expecting the data to show that Australia's population increased by somewhere close to an unprecedented 430,000 persons in 2013, largely driven by immigration.

In particular, my analysis tells me to expect that perhaps 93% or more of the population growth occurred in only four states, those being New South Wales, Victoria, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.

The population growth percentage rates of the territories - Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory - are expected to be middling, but naturally the growth figures in absolute terms will be very small at just a few thousand apiece.

Stagnation in other states

On the flip side, I'm expecting to see population growth in 2013 of close to zero in flat-lining Tassie.

Meanwhile, South Australia's population growth I expect to be very low at under 1%, way below the national average of 1.8%, though I do note that statistical rounding could see the final figure come in at bang on 1.0% (or perhaps 0.9%).

I have a number of great mates from Adelaide, particularly as I used to work down there a bit in the mining industry, and contrary to popular stereotyping they are a diverse group of folk with a broad range of interests. 

Indeed, there is only one characteristic springing to mind which unites them as a group, that being that not one of them actually lives in Adelaide.

The city has been suffering for years from a major brain drain, with the best and brightest upping sticks to seek bigger and better opportunities elsewhere. 

As a result, Adelaide needs immigration from overseas to thrive. 

No problem with that in theory, but since the local economy hasn't added any jobs on a net basis since 2010 and the unemployment rate is far too high for comfort at 6.8%, to me that spells a concerning dynamic.

Reports Adelaide Now:

""An exodus of South Australians across the border is costing the economy millions each year in a brain drain that is shaping up as a "crunch" issue for the state.

SA is losing almost 2000 residents each year, lured by better job prospects, and a more cosmopolitan lifestyle in cities such as Melbourne and Sydney.

Census data, collated by Adelaide University demographer Professor Graeme Hugo, shows 59,222 people left the state between 2006 and 2011 - 9000 more than who came to SA over the same period.

Demographer Bernard Salt said the migration of young people was a "major economic loss", potentially costing millions in lost revenue."

"You're losing your future taxpayers," he said. "If you lose people at, say, 24, and that's often the case in SA, that means the South Australian taxpayer has funded their ... schooling.

"But when it comes to those people paying back to the community by way of tax, they pay back to the Sydney or Melbourne community instead."

Mr Salt said many young people were driven to leave SA because "their career aspirations are greater than the city from where they've come".

Former Local Government Minister Greg Crafter told the Sunday Mail  that an ageing population and slowing workforce growth meant councils' ability to provide services would be outstripped by demand.

"We're losing people in terms of internal migration, which is a real concern," he said. He said an ageing community meant "less ratepayers, less taxpayers, less volunteers, less people to work with" and this was the "crunch issue we have to face (in SA)".

Prof Hugo's research shows that the number of people in Adelaide aged 65  and over was set to double by 2050  - to about 370,000 compared to  183,300 in 2011.

[State Premier] Mr. Jay Weatherill said the attractiveness of the city and exciting job opportunities would keep people in Adelaide. 

"Just asking people to come back isn't enough," he said.

Opposition Leader Steven Marshall will visit Sydney and Melbourne in coming months to ask groups of young Adelaideans why they left and what could convince them to return.

"A lot of our best and brightest younger people just don't see a future here in South Australia," he said. "They just feel there's not the opportunities (here) that exist in other states."

Australian Population Institute (SA) chairman Michael Hickinbotham said the ageing population was "our single greatest challenge".

Not much to add to that, except to note in passing that an ageing South Australian community could result in fewer taxpayers and fewer ratepayers, as opposed to "less taxpayers" and "less ratepayers"...