Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Monday, 23 June 2014

BIS: Property prices to grow in Sydney (14pc) & Brisbane (17pc)

BIS Shrapnel reports that it forecasts property prices to rise in Brisbane and Sydney by 17pc and 14pc respectively, with the Sydney market to cool again next in 2017.

BIS also forecasts declines "in real terms" in Adelaide, Melbourne, Canberra, Perth, Hobart and Darwin.

Translated, that means prices are still forecast to grow elsewhere over the next three years, but slower than the rate of inflation.

Still no joy for Adelaide with the local press reporting that higher unemployment rates have led to foreclosures in the South Australian capital.

BIS doesn't have a stellar track record of forecasting, it's true, but nevertheless, still worth a read.

Reports the Australian:

"Housing oversupply and muted economic conditions will mean flat or falling home prices in Australian cities over the next few years, a BIS Shrapnel report has forecast.
But Sydney and Brisbane could escape some of the weakness because housing supply in those cities is limited and vacancies lower.
“By June 2017, only the Brisbane and Sydney markets are expected to have experienced any growth in house prices in real terms (adjusted for inflation) over the previous three years, with all remaining capital cities expected to have recorded real price declines,” the Residential Property Prospects 2014 — 2017 report warns.
While there is significant construction activity in Sydney, it will take some time for the high levels of apartment projects to be completed and impact vacancy rates, according to Angie Zigomanis, head of BIS Shrapnel’s residential research unit.
“We are forecasting total price growth in Sydney over the three years to June 2017 to be 10 per cent, with all of the growth concentrated over the next two years, followed by a decline in the third year,” Mr Zigomanis said.
Despite the gloomy forecast, Lend Lease’s substantial Darling Square development in Sydney’s CBD sold its initial release early on Saturday morning this weekend.
All 350 apartments, which were priced between $700,000 and $3.5 million, sold out, with more than 600 prospective buyers attending the sales launch.
In Melbourne, prices are forecast to fall by 1 per cent when adjusted for inflation in the three years to June 2017, as more homes come on to the market and weakness continues in the state’s key manufacturing sector.
Adelaide “remains a challenge”, with total growth of 5 per cent to June 2017, representing “a 4 per cent decline in real terms.” Perth is also forecast to see a drop in real terms of six per cent in that time.
Similarly, Hobart and Darwin will decline by 5 per cent and Canberra by 6 per cent in real terms, according to BIS Shrapnel.
The economy’s transition from one driven by resource investment to domestic demand is one of the complicating factors, Mr Zigomanis said.
“The RBA is expected to enter a tightening phase towards the end of 2015,” he said.
“Initial rises are likely to have a limited effect with the economy strengthening, although further rises will more significantly impact on affordability and prices through calendar 2016, while also eventually having the desired effect of slowing economic growth and inflationary pressures.”
Last week investment management firm Morgan Stanley said investors shouldn’t expect the unusually large home price growth seen over the last two decades to continue."