Labour market is easing (gradually, then suddenly)

Labour market easing

Everyone was watching closely to see if last month's unemployment rate 'shock' to the downside was an anomaly.

In March, the unemployment rate did increase, but only fairly moderately in the end from 3.71 per cent to 3.84 per cent, on a seasonally adjusted basis. 

Employment fell modestly over the month, down by -6,600, but the total number of employed persons held close to a record high, at above 14¼ million. 

The number of unemployed persons, seasonally adjusted, increased by +20,600, to a still modest 569,900.

Overall, the lower participation rate has stopped unemployment rates from rising further to date.

So far, so unremarkable, but those with their ears to the ground are picking up somewhat different vibes.

Recruitment plans are diving, anecdotally, and the latest figures on company insolvencies - especially in the construction sector, but also now elsewhere - are increasingly worrying. 

Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro with the chart:

Almost every other indicator is pointing to rising unemployment as well, and Australia will probably follow New Zealand and Canada into an ogoing economic slowdown. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

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You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

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And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

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You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

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Inflation is sticky around the traps

Higher for longer

Canada's inflation rate edged up from 2.8 per cent to 2.9 per cent in March.

New Zealand saw some ongoing progress, with the inflation rate falling from 4.7 per cent to 4 per cent over the course of the March quarter, though core inflation was a little stickier than hoped for.

The UK's inflation rate fell from 3.4 per cent to 3.2 per cent, which was also a little higher than expected, though it was at least a 2½ year low. 

You could certainly make the argument that over approximately the past 6 months New Zealand and Canada have seen inflation rates running at around the target range (and the same could be said to be true for the US, excluding shelter).

But clearly we aren't quite there yet, and the last leg of the journey back to target might yet prove to be the trickiest.

Australia's quarterly inflation figures are due to be released next week.

Tomorrow will see the release of some very interesting labour force figures Down Under. 

Last month saw an unemployment rate 'shock' to the downside, with the seasonally adjusted 3.7 per cent reported seemingly at odds with most other indicators. 

Perhaps we'll see some of the huge seasonally adjusted increase in jobs unwound this month as well. 

ausbiz TV: Rents stoking the inflationary fire?

ausbiz TV

I joined Juliette Saly at ausbiz TV to discuss the latest property market themes here (or click on the image below):

Immigration accelerating again; but not for long...

Immigration breaks records in early 2024

No respite from the immigration figures in February 2024, with monthly permanent and long-term arrivals surging to a record high at above 153,000.

Over January and February 2024, a record 278,000 permanent and long-term arrivals entered Australia.

In February, long-term departures slumped to just 46,700, so on a net basis we've seen another acceleration in net immigration to just shy of +500,000 over the year, which is of course also a fresh record high. 

There is something of a seasonal aspect to this, and hopefully things should prove to calm down a bit in March.

Indeed, this will partly come about anyway from higher rejection rates for international student visas. 

Education arrivals were more than 101,000 in February as international students came back into the country for the summer term, but this figure will naturally be lower over the following months. 

No peak in sight just yet for immigration, then, but the rapidly rising rejection rates for student visas suggest that the population growth peak probably was hit by around March.

In other news, SQM Research reported rental vacancy rates remaining flat at 1 per cent in March.

Sydney and Melbourne (both at 1.1 per cent respectively) had very tight rental vacancy rates for such large cities, while Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide all had rental vacancy rates of 1 per cent or lower. 

Asking rents for capital city units continued to rise, rising by +9.2 per cent over the year, despite declines in Hobart.

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 32,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

New home sales remain chronically low

New home sales mired at low level

Nothing too new here, but new home sales remained extremely low in March, and flat over the March 2024 quarter.

Over the March quarter, new home sales were -19 per cent lower than the equivalent quarter 5 years earlier, which doesn't bide well for housing supply. 

The Housing Industry Association did observe that the crash in new home sales has been especially market in the housing markets where land prices are high. 

New home sales have fallen in half in New South Wales from half a decade earlier, while in Victoria new home sales have fallen by a third. 

There have been further reports of builder insolvencies this week.

Never bet against America...

Retail sales in the US were again stronger than expected - never bet against the US consumer - reinforcing the recent theme of 'higher for longer' interest rates.

Australia's 3-year bond yield is trading back up at around 3.9 per cent, with the first interest rate cut not fully priced in now until early 2025. 

Australian households have been hit relatively harder, with most borrowers feeling the pain of higher variable mortgages rates, and with a swathe of fixed rate mortgages resetting to much higher repayments. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 32,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Construction cost pressures easing at last (Land Cycle webinar, Thursday 6pm)

Land Cycle Investor

On Thursday at 6pm I'll be joining Catherine Cashmore from Land Cycle Investor to do a live webinar and Q&A. 

This live webinar is officially for Cashmore's subs, but as a lucky loyal blog reader you can join us for free with the details below:

Time: Apr 18, 2024 06:00 PM Australia/Melbourne

Join Zoom Meeting
https://us06web.zoom.us/j/82498439030?pwd=laCsC4azVVOlzCWmzraPLiUxOonvgX.1

Meeting ID: 824 9843 9030
Passcode: 883621

Have your questions ready, and see you there on Thursday. 

Oil prices hedge

I've been saying to my property clients for a long time that - for my situation anyway - my preferred hedge is energy stocks at the moment. 

That's on the basis that there's only really two possible outcomes here. 

If global demand drops and oil prices fall, then, well, happy days, my mortgage repayments will probably get cheaper too over the next few years. 

If on the other hand the mess really hits the fan in the Middle East and oil prices spike to above $100, at least you'll be as well positioned for that particular chaos as you can be.

Disclosure: holding.

Disinflation news

In other news, Australia's construction cost inflation has fallen to the lowest level in 17 years in the March 2024 quarter, according to CoreLogic's Construction Cost index, at +2.8 per cent over the year. 

Construction costs, including the price of materials and trades, have been a major part of the inflation story over the past four years.

We're not completely out the woods yet, with construction unions in Queensland pushing for more large pay rises for the 2025 tax year, and this is not helping homebuilders with their already very tight margins. 

But overall, a 17-year low in construction cost inflation is obviously very welcome news. 

You can read the CoreLogic report here. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 32,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Podcast: Wealth is subjective, housing supply targets, & new book

2-Sense podcast

Tune in to this week's podcast with Batesy and I where we discuss how wealth is subjective, housing supply targets, my new co-authored book, and more.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 32,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Pre-order our new book here

New book

Exciting to see the first copies of our new book coming hot off the presses.

You can pre-order from our publisher here (or click on the image below):

The book will be on sale next month at Dymocks, WHSmith, Newslink, etc etc...

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 32,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.