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Saturday, 31 March 2018
Weekend reads - must see articles of the week
How's your long Easter weekend going?
Here are the most interesting real estate articles of the past week - summarised for you here at Property Update.
Friday, 30 March 2018
Sydney unemployment rate continues to drop (but elsewhere...)
Sydney leads the way
The annual average number of unemployed persons in Australia is falling, albeit very, very slowly.
The annual average number of unemployed persons in Australia is falling, albeit very, very slowly.
The time it takes to find a job is also improving, very, very slowly.
Of the major capital cities only Sydney is really making serious headway in this regard, with its annual unemployment rate now down to just 4½ per cent, having added more than 72,500 jobs over the year to February 2018 on a net basis.
Sydney is also losing some residents upstate and interstate, which is contributing a little to a tightening of its labour market.
A decade ago Sydney's annual average unemployment rate hit just 4.2 per cent, which was the lowest result we've seen on this series.
Of the major capital cities only Sydney is really making serious headway in this regard, with its annual unemployment rate now down to just 4½ per cent, having added more than 72,500 jobs over the year to February 2018 on a net basis.
Sydney is also losing some residents upstate and interstate, which is contributing a little to a tightening of its labour market.
A decade ago Sydney's annual average unemployment rate hit just 4.2 per cent, which was the lowest result we've seen on this series.
Most of the other major capital cities have unemployment rates hovering around 6 per cent, however.
So although some employers are finding it a bit difficult to source the desired staff, overall there remains plenty of slack in the labour force outside Sydney.
In saying that, it's good to see Queensland employment now getting some traction.
The theme is one of improvement, but at a rather glacial pace.
So although some employers are finding it a bit difficult to source the desired staff, overall there remains plenty of slack in the labour force outside Sydney.
In saying that, it's good to see Queensland employment now getting some traction.
The theme is one of improvement, but at a rather glacial pace.
Thursday, 29 March 2018
Australian job vacancies go into orbit
Record openings
Another big result for jobs vacancies in the February quarter, with now just shy of ¼ million vacancies for a huge +19.4 per cent increase and the highest figure on record in Australia.
Of course the labour force is also bigger than it used to be at well above 13 million these days, but even accounting for this it's potentially as good a time as we've seen in recent years for finding a job, with the latest trends implying that the unemployment rate should decline in due course.
That the unemployment rate has yet to fall below around 5½ cent reflects a rising participation rate, skill mismatches, and a lack of labour force mobility.
Sydney and Melbourne have created jobs at fast pace in recent years, but this release showed that vacancies are higher than a year earlier across all states and territories, including the resources states which are now into recovery mode.
That bodes well for broad-based hiring.
Meanwhile, potentially positive news for the budget as the number of unemployed persons for job vacancy hit its lowest level since May 2011, which hopefully in turn should see the unemployment rate fall.
There was a reasonable spread of job vacancies across the industries, from professional & scientific roles (24,600) and healthcare & social assistance (23,900), to admin & support (39,500) and retail trade (22,100).
The recent spurt of job gains was driven by healthcare and social assistance positions, accounting for well over half of the net gains in the February 2018 quarter.
Wednesday, 28 March 2018
Engineering construction turning a corner
Turn it up
There have been some incredible spikes and troughs in engineering construction in recent quarters.
These related to the import of LNG platforms in Western Australia, leading to wild spikes and reversals.
Looking through the noise at the trend figures it seems that the large pipeline of public infrastructure works in New South Wales and Victoria has finally arrested the downturn in engineering construction initiated by the resources construction cliff way back at the end of 2012.
It's been a long half decade for Western Australia since the peak of the boom, but there were further positive signs for the state in these numbers with the trend now at long last rising again.
The figures for work commenced are always much lumpier - as is the nature of these things - but these show that Queensland has got some chunky private sector projects underway now.
One such example is the huge redevelopment underway at Brisbane Airport, but there are plenty of others.
Having already invested $1.6 billion in upgrades since 2012, Brisbane Airport Corporation (BAC) is now:
"...investing a further $2.2 billion building Brisbane’s New Runway, expanding the International Terminal, redeveloping the Domestic Terminal, constructing new aircraft aprons, building a new multi-storey car park...and developing a new Industrial Park and ground breaking BNE Auto Mall."
There's a fair amount of other works underway across Brisbane and Gold Coast too.
Darling Harbour Mk2
Regeneration
I lived at Darling Harbour for many years, including through its 21st anniversary in 2009.
As it aged, further massive urban redevelopment got underway, and I moved elsewhere, at least for the time being.
Here's a little look at what's been going down.
Starting at the Haymarket end of the site, new apartments at Darling Square courtesy of Lend Lease, and Commonwealth Bank offices.
Commercial office redevelopment alongside Tumbalong Park, which itself is now a popular destination for families, with its playground and cafes.
New Sofitel hotel, behind the ICC.
Retail and entertainment space under the ICC.
The 3 monolithic towers at Barangaroo to the left of shot below, another Lend Lease brainchild, and a $6+ billion development covering 22 hectares.
About 16,000 people are employed in the three towers to date.
The entire precinct at East Darling Harbour, once known as the Hungry Mile, and now known as the new suburb of Barangaroo, will be finished by around 2024, with much more to come here, including the Crown Sydney casino and six-star luxury hotel resort, now under construction.
A new metro station will open in 2024, signifying the final piece of the project.
The Harbourside shopping centre adjacent to the Sofitel and ICC will be developed in time by Mirvac, with the developer submitting contentious preliminary plans to build a truly vast office tower at the foot of Pyrmont Bridge.
Not well captured here the vibe - the harbourside is absolutely pumping with activity.
Tuesday, 27 March 2018
Student visas up...? Not 'alf
Student boom
The Department of Home Affairs released its latest pivot tables on temporary visas holders in Australia (with thanks to Henry Sherrell for highlighting).
While the December quarter numbers tend to swing sharply higher due to fireworks on the harbour and all that jazz - to well above 2.2 million last year - the September figures make for interesting reading.
The stock data shows that temporary visa holders in Australia rose to 2.07 million by September 2017, well up from 1.96 million a year earlier and some 23 per cent higher than as at September 2012.
That represents an extra 382,000 temporary visa holders in Australia from 5 years ago.
There's no doubting the source of the boom, being the 50 per cent boost in student visas over the past half decade to well over ½ million.
Also of interest to note: the number of bridging visas is now rising fast, implying a surge in the demand for permanent residency (PR) visa places from temporary visa holders.
These trends help to explain why the population of the largest capital cities has effectively been growing much more quickly than implied by the issuance of PR visas alone.
Last plane out of Sydney
Car parks make me jumpy...
There's been lots of talk about a Sydney exodus, so I thought I'd take a look at a few stats.
Departures interstate are now at last increasing strongly from relatively subdued levels, but were still no higher than historical norms as at September 2017, at least according to the latest ABS estimates.
Job security and higher stamp duty levies than in previous cycles are two factors to take into account here.
In saying that, more Sydneysiders are taking their equity out to the regional centres up and down the NSW coast, and inland too.
In Western Australia, on the other hand, interstate departures have been tracking high as they have ever been on this series, with annual estimates hitting a peak of above 40,000 in the first quarter of calendar year 2017.
Melbourne has lately been a key destination of choice for many interstate migrants, bucking historical trends.
On a net basis, however, most departees from New South Wales and elsewhere are now heading to Queensland.
And the last plane out of Sydney clearly hasn't gone yet.
Monday, 26 March 2018
Building boom!
Construction bonanza
Melbourne undertook more dwelling starts than ever before through last year.
But at the state level there are few signs of a structural oversupply, with the population growing by somewhere close to 150,000 per annum according to the latest estimates.
The New South Wales building boom has been something else, with more than 70,000 dwellings kicked off over the year to September 2017. Wow!
Supply is failing to keep pace in a sense in Sydney, with land prices doubling over the past half decade.
But as more and more residents head north to Queensland as well as to the state's regional centres there will clearly be a glut of apartments in some of Sydney's construction hotspots.
Expect there will be some price discounting on new apartments...
Sunday, 25 March 2018
Normal service to be resumed forthwith
Building bonanza
I've written a lot here about Queensland's record apartment construction boom, which is now rebalancing.
See here and here, for example.
See here and here, for example.
The number of attached dwellings constructed through this cycle will exceed even the post-recession boom of the early 1990s.
The number of detached house starts is now rising steadily, but for attached dwellings new commencements are falling fast, especially for the higher-density projects.
And the official numbers are 6 to 9 months old.
And the official numbers are 6 to 9 months old.
A quick drive around central Brisbane reveals that many projects have been stalled or mothballed, and staged releases pushed out.
Developers simply can't shift many of them, with unusually 'flexible' terms being offered to prospective buyers in some cases.
Below annual dwelling starts for the state are mapped against the estimated change in the resident population.
I deliberately haven't messed around with the axes on the chart as some are inclined to do.
After all, this cycle has been characterised by record volumes of high-rise apartments, which might reasonably be expected house fewer persons per unit on average previously.
There is also arguably the issue of Chinese investors and apartments deliberately left vacant to account for, although the Census didn't appear to find Brisbane to have an abnormally high percentage of uninhabited dwellings.
There is also arguably the issue of Chinese investors and apartments deliberately left vacant to account for, although the Census didn't appear to find Brisbane to have an abnormally high percentage of uninhabited dwellings.
The numbers show total dwelling starts falling fast in 2017, as they needed to.
Queensland's net overseas immigration and therefore population growth pulled back hard after the peak of resources construction, leading to a dwelling stock overhang, in a similar vein to Western Australia.
Fortunately for local developers, Queensland has become the state with the greatest internal population flows in the country, which is helping to stabilise the ship.
Many apartment developers will be looking to offload their final units quick-sharp and put the shutters up for the remainder of this cycle.
As ever, significant variations become apparent when drilling down to the regional and suburb level.
Just not cricket?
Just not cricket?
Racism was considered off limits, of course, though even that was a bit of grey area.
Confusing protocols and ethics? You can say that again!
Some teams such as mine (Sheffield, below) and those of other redbrick Unis (Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham) were self-managed and essentially adopted an 'anything goes' policy to everything from batsmen walking, sledging, and general onfield behaviour, to drinking caseloads of Newkie Brown on the team minibus.
One legendary Aussie cricketer famously grappled with this moral issue during his career, but found that his teammates were bemused by his walking off during a critical World Cup match in 2003 when, it transpired, the umpire wasn't inclined to send him packing...
What's unusual about this incident is that it seems some of the players and possibly even the leadership group knew about the plan, and confessed as much almost immediately.
It's often said that Australian cricket captain is the second most important job in the country after Prime Minister, and some have even quipped that it's the most important.
It certainly feels that way with the extreme levels of furore over alleged ball tampering (actually the Aussie captain quickly admitted the team's offence, so it's not even alleged).
Cricket really is a uniquely weird sport, with more idiosyncrasies than perhaps any other.
Whether people admit or not cheating has always been a part of the game.
It's just that some cheating is considered deeply unacceptable and some is deemed worthy only of a slap on the wrist.
It's just that some cheating is considered deeply unacceptable and some is deemed worthy only of a slap on the wrist.
Schoolboy errors
Thinking back to school cricket in England, as 1st XI captain of cricket I was expected to uphold the highest standards on behalf of the school, which by and large I did - at least on the cricket field 😇 - enough to win a school sporting prize of some sort or other.
But then at weekends I'd go to play senior League Cricket where gamesmanship or mild personal abuse (known informally as 'sledging') was generally considered to be acceptable, even by the League officials supposedly charged with governing onfield behaviour.
I recall one tribunal where among a litany of complaints an opposition player complained of receiving abuse about his weight combined with strong language. The juror, a solid fellow himself, dismissed that particular point out of hand - as a former player, he considered it a routine insult.
One chap was banned for life for cursing at an umpire having been no-balled, while another player received a 3-match ban for attacking a bowler with his bat. He was certainly provoked, but there wasn't necessarily a whole lot of consistency in punishments.
I recall one tribunal where among a litany of complaints an opposition player complained of receiving abuse about his weight combined with strong language. The juror, a solid fellow himself, dismissed that particular point out of hand - as a former player, he considered it a routine insult.
One chap was banned for life for cursing at an umpire having been no-balled, while another player received a 3-match ban for attacking a bowler with his bat. He was certainly provoked, but there wasn't necessarily a whole lot of consistency in punishments.
Racism was considered off limits, of course, though even that was a bit of grey area.
Quite rightly you couldn't abuse someone for being Indian, Pakistani, or West Indian, but it soon became apparent that insulting a player for being Australian or South African was normally taken to be fair game, even with a few expletives and adjectives thrown in for good measure.
If the recipient was an Aussie the umpires often chuckled, presumably because they'd heard enough pleasantries flying back in the other direction.
If the recipient was an Aussie the umpires often chuckled, presumably because they'd heard enough pleasantries flying back in the other direction.
Then there was the thorny issue of batsmen not willingly leaving the field when they knew they were out by snicking or edging the ball for a catch to the wicket keeper or slips.
In League cricket this was absolutely the norm, at least in the top divisions where not 'walking' was rarely frowned upon after the initial onfield uproar had died down.
But then I'd go back to play a revered annual school match versus the Marylebone Cricket Club where you could be vilified for doing exactly the same thing.
Nobody even dreamed of not walking in those games, let alone sledging or personal abuse - the MCC members would've had heart attacks!
Nobody even dreamed of not walking in those games, let alone sledging or personal abuse - the MCC members would've had heart attacks!
Confusing protocols and ethics? You can say that again!
Universally challenged
By the time I got to University 1st XI cricket nobody really seemed to know what was going on.
Some teams such as mine (Sheffield, below) and those of other redbrick Unis (Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham) were self-managed and essentially adopted an 'anything goes' policy to everything from batsmen walking, sledging, and general onfield behaviour, to drinking caseloads of Newkie Brown on the team minibus.
For us it all came down to personal decisions and choices, which perhaps is what going to University in Britain is all about.
Other teams we played against (Durham, Loughborough) had professional coaches, with some of their players aspiring to professional contracts and too fearful of stepping out of line, or saying almost anything untoward on the field at all - to the point that we were able to turn them over in two different formats of the game, which should never have been the case given their far superior talent pool.
To walk or not to walk?
When I first came to Sydney to play grade cricket, as a batsman you could cop a bollocking if you did walk, especially if it was detrimental to the team's chances. I never walked for anything in grade cricket, and most players don't.
At the professional level, today it is considered standard for players to wait for the umpire's decision even if they know they are out, so not walking is now in vogue, though this wasn't always the case.
At the professional level, today it is considered standard for players to wait for the umpire's decision even if they know they are out, so not walking is now in vogue, though this wasn't always the case.
One legendary Aussie cricketer famously grappled with this moral issue during his career, but found that his teammates were bemused by his walking off during a critical World Cup match in 2003 when, it transpired, the umpire wasn't inclined to send him packing...
Australian fans and even some players seemed enraged for years about an Englishman not walking during an Ashes match, the sin in his case being that the edge was too obvious (though for some reason not obvious enough for the umpire to pick it up!)...
Yet Aussie cricket fans seemed to have conveniently forgotten that one of their very own had tried on exactly the same ruse in 2008, albeit to no avail in his case!
Thus, not walking is widely accepted in professional matches, though it might be more contentious for some players in big games, while back in the 1980s some batsmen seemed far more inclined to walk when they had scored, say, 37 runs or 68 runs, but not when they were on 0 or 99, which only confused matters further.
Mild cheats prosper
Some mild forms of 'cheating' are considered normal and fine - essentially not cheating at all - such as batsmen initiating part of a run before the ball is delivered by the bowler, a bit like trying to steal a base in baseball.
However, if the bowler runs the batsman out for doing so - nicknamed a 'Mankad' after a player that undertook this unsporting act - this is within the laws of cricket but deemed to be against the spirit of the game (whatever that means!) and ungentlemanly conduct, unless the batsman has been cautioned at least once.
That said, perhaps this form of dismissal is now becoming more common? I don't watch enough short form or T20 cricket to know either way.
Batsmen showing dissent towards an umpire's decision was once considered to be sacrilege and worthy of a fine or a ban, but this issue too has become somewhat muddled since at certain times and in some forms of the game the batsman is allowed to question the umpire's decision by calling for a television review.
Perversely, fielders claiming a clean catch when the ball had bounced was once seen to be one of the dirtiest tricks in the game, though attitudes to this scourge have softened too with fielders now more likely to profess that they are unsure and deferring the television cameras for judgement.
The pictures almost invariably come back with inconclusive evidence, and this has led to some furious exchanges between Test players.
Should the fielder's word be trusted, even where they also appeal speculatively for dismissals when they know full well they aren't out?
The pictures almost invariably come back with inconclusive evidence, and this has led to some furious exchanges between Test players.
Should the fielder's word be trusted, even where they also appeal speculatively for dismissals when they know full well they aren't out?
Bad blood
At the international level all too often there seems to be bad blood between teams and spectators.
This is unsavoury, of course, but perhaps inevitable, for what we might deem to be acceptable gameship or 'mental disintegration' in Australia or England might be considered highly offensive to another culture.
Domestic state cricket in Australia can be seriously intense with the blurred lines of decency being crossed all the time, but players generally seem to know the bounds of what's considered totally off limits, and the world generally moves on.
International match flare-ups and disputes on the other hand can lead to an entire series being halted.
International match flare-ups and disputes on the other hand can lead to an entire series being halted.
Ball tampering in various guises has gone on for decades, of course, from the use of bottle tops to scratch the ball (total sacrilege!) to the less seriously regarded application of sweat and ambre solaire, or saliva infused with sugar from sweets/lollies to the ball to hopefully make it swing about more.
Players picking away at the ball's seam with fingernails has often come to light, while a former England captain was once caught by a television camera apparently rubbing dirt on to the ball.
He claimed afterwards that he was drying his fingers by applying dirt to them, which was a peculiar explanation so say the least, but helped him to dodge the lynch mob and a few media bullets.
One former Test player told me that everyone was at it back in his day - on both sides of a series he played in - the trick was simply not to get caught.
All of which brings us to today, with an Australian player caught out by television cameras using less than noble means of doctoring the ball.
What's unusual about this incident is that it seems some of the players and possibly even the leadership group knew about the plan, and confessed as much almost immediately.
Heads may roll, and maybe they need to given the exceptional circumstances.
Personally I just hope the Aussie captain can continue doing what he does better than anyone...actually playing the game of cricket.
In the words of Sir Henry Newbolt: "Play up! Play up! And play the game!".
In the words of Sir Henry Newbolt: "Play up! Play up! And play the game!".
Saturday, 24 March 2018
Weekend reads - must see articles of the week
Property Update!
Recently rated number 1 real estate blog in the world.
It was also ranked #1 property blog recently by Landguide as you can see here, from a cracking list of 55 blogs.
Find Property Update's must read articles of the week here.
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Recently rated number 1 real estate blog in the world.
It was also ranked #1 property blog recently by Landguide as you can see here, from a cracking list of 55 blogs.
Find Property Update's must read articles of the week here.
Subscribe for the free content and newsletter here.
Friday, 23 March 2018
Where & why population growth is accelerating (& declining)
Population growth up again
Figures out yesterday showed Australian employment growth tracking at all-time record levels, with a stunning +420,700 year-on-year increase in employment, including an eye-watering +166,200 increase in New South Wales.
I took a look through those numbers in a bit more detail, including at the state level, here.
Population growth tends to be pro-cyclical, and over the year to September 2017 the annual growth in Australia's estimated resident population picked up to +395,600, for the quickest annual increase since 2013 in absolute terms, if not in percentage terms.
The estimated rate of population increase through net overseas migration is a bit faster than might be implied by the issuance of permanent residency visas, with the growth international students accounting for some of the difference.
I'll take a look below through where and why that's happened in 4 short parts.
Part 1: By natural causes...
As the population grows and ages the number of deaths each year tends to climb steadily, now up to +161,100 over the year to September 2017.
The trends for births are a bit more complicated, and often vary quite significantly around the regions of Australia and by culture.
Generally speaking, we're still having babies, but on average we opt to do it later in life than was the case over the preceding decades.
I'm not a bad case study myself for Australia's population trends, being a capital city immigrant to Sydney that worked in professional services, then mining, then real estate...before relocating to Brisbane, and leaving having children about as late as nature would allow.
I've yet to get divorced.
You might say I'm following the herd, but in fact my plan has been to be ahead of the crowd on all fronts, and indeed with the benefit of hindsight I probably got out of the mining industry a few years too soon (bubbles can have a second wind and run for much longer than you think they will...but you live and learn with these things!).
Anyway, back to the demographic statistics, there was previously a bit of a blip in the births figures - the error was administrative and related to slow record-keeping rather than the number of babies actually popping out - but the backlog now seems to be fixed and total births have stabilised at around +306,500.
Thus, the natural increase in Australia's population over the year to September was +145,500, a bit lower than the +151,500 a year earlier as the number of deaths continued to increase.
The trends for births are a bit more complicated, and often vary quite significantly around the regions of Australia and by culture.
Generally speaking, we're still having babies, but on average we opt to do it later in life than was the case over the preceding decades.
I'm not a bad case study myself for Australia's population trends, being a capital city immigrant to Sydney that worked in professional services, then mining, then real estate...before relocating to Brisbane, and leaving having children about as late as nature would allow.
I've yet to get divorced.
You might say I'm following the herd, but in fact my plan has been to be ahead of the crowd on all fronts, and indeed with the benefit of hindsight I probably got out of the mining industry a few years too soon (bubbles can have a second wind and run for much longer than you think they will...but you live and learn with these things!).
Anyway, back to the demographic statistics, there was previously a bit of a blip in the births figures - the error was administrative and related to slow record-keeping rather than the number of babies actually popping out - but the backlog now seems to be fixed and total births have stabilised at around +306,500.
Thus, the natural increase in Australia's population over the year to September was +145,500, a bit lower than the +151,500 a year earlier as the number of deaths continued to increase.
It's hard to predict what will happen here.
Certainly the number of deaths will continue to rise (that's one prediction you can hold me to) and as the Baby Boomer population ages for the past decade I've consistently recommended some exposure to the healthcare sector for that very reason, while there will be a chronic shortage of aged care facilities and, in some locations, retirement living options.
Future births I can't reliably predict - nobody can - but by dicing up the population pyramid I do like to construct the argument that the growth in births will be much stronger than many expect, due to immigration being focused on younger arrivals, and the corresponding explosion in the 25-34 year old cohort.
The births boom will just come a bit later down the track than previous trends might imply, that's all.
Unfortunately more divorces and separations will also ultimately result in an unprecedented spike in demand for inner-suburban apartments and townhomes, but that's all a while away yet.
Part 2: Immigration nation
Certainly the number of deaths will continue to rise (that's one prediction you can hold me to) and as the Baby Boomer population ages for the past decade I've consistently recommended some exposure to the healthcare sector for that very reason, while there will be a chronic shortage of aged care facilities and, in some locations, retirement living options.
Future births I can't reliably predict - nobody can - but by dicing up the population pyramid I do like to construct the argument that the growth in births will be much stronger than many expect, due to immigration being focused on younger arrivals, and the corresponding explosion in the 25-34 year old cohort.
The births boom will just come a bit later down the track than previous trends might imply, that's all.
Unfortunately more divorces and separations will also ultimately result in an unprecedented spike in demand for inner-suburban apartments and townhomes, but that's all a while away yet.
Part 2: Immigration nation
Australia's permanent migrant intake is capped at around 200,000 per annum, but the overall pace of net overseas migration was faster than this, partly accounted for by international students.
Furthermore, earlier studies by the ABS have found that many Australians migrating overseas 'permanently' or purportedly for the long term end up returning to these shores within a remarkably short space of time, suggesting that for many the grass is not greener elsewhere.
Incidentally, I wrote in 2015 how these 'boomerang departures' would be one factor leading to a population growth rebound, inadvertently dragging me into a quagmire of social media ridicule (in the end I was right, though).
Looking at the net figures, then, we can see that net overseas migration increased by +15.4 per cent over the year to +250,100.
Furthermore, earlier studies by the ABS have found that many Australians migrating overseas 'permanently' or purportedly for the long term end up returning to these shores within a remarkably short space of time, suggesting that for many the grass is not greener elsewhere.
Incidentally, I wrote in 2015 how these 'boomerang departures' would be one factor leading to a population growth rebound, inadvertently dragging me into a quagmire of social media ridicule (in the end I was right, though).
Looking at the net figures, then, we can see that net overseas migration increased by +15.4 per cent over the year to +250,100.
The next slide tells its own story: immigrants still love Sydney and Melbourne, and now in record numbers.
Concerningly for the regional centres of Australia, the Characteristics of Recent Migrants survey showed that not only do migrants uniformly head to the capital cities, they also now overwhelmingly remain there.
I know a bit about this, because I'm one of the said migrants, although like many I've made a couple of internal capital city moves since my first arrival in Australia in the 1990s.
During the mining boom years through until 2012 immigrants also flocked to the resources states.
I recall Simon Reeve's BBC documentaries revealing to stunned Britons that expat truck drivers in Western Australia were earning salaries that most working class Poms could only dream of, and to rub further salt into their wounds the truckies were living in houses with swimming pools you could actually swim in!
Although Queensland has experienced something of a rebound, the drawcard for the resources states is not nearly as strong as it used to be, and South Australia has at least half a foot in that camp too.
Going forward Sydney, Melbourne and south-east Queensland are projected to capture the bulk of population growth.
Perth will now have direct flights to Europe in its favour, but my analysis here previously has shown that in the future almost all of the net growth in the overseas born population will be driven by migrants of Asian origin.
European-born Baby Boomers are set to drop off the perch and more Asian migrants and international students from China and India are dominating the intake (with many expected to become permanent residents later).
This in turn has a strong impact on future demographic pull-factors, including for family visas and future international students.
Part 3: Upping sticks
One of the main trends to watch for me at the moment is internal movements as the two most populous capital cities adjust to the latest influx.
Sydney in particular can be wearisome at times with the delivery of the CBD & South East Light Rail project still seemingly an age away, although testing on the Randwick section is at least now underway.
This is scant consolation, I expect, for the commuting residents of Randwick and Coogee currently experiencing near-unfathomable gridlock on their short 6 to 8km journey to the city, only to discover that when then arrive in the city the key CBD thoroughfares are being dug up there too.
For this reason and others, Queensland has now usurped Victoria as the typical interstate migrant's destination of choice with net inflows hitting a decade high of above +19,000.
About 12,000 of those came from New South Wales on a net basis, with the ratio of Sydney's house prices to those in Brisbane tracking at the highest level we've ever seen at above 2.2. One way or another that ratio will likely close back below 2.
Although not included here because it would simply be a long, flat, green line on this Y-axis scale, Tasmania is now attracting more than a smattering of interstate migrants at +1,000 net over the year to September.
Net interstate migration away from struggling South Australia is not a new thing, and indeed the ABS figures record that well over 100,000 South Australians have relocated elsewhere on a net basis since the early 1980s.
South Australia now has the slowest population growth of all the states in percentage terms at +0.6 per cent, but it's the composition of demographic change rather than the absolute headcount that should be of most concern.
The present speed of the outflow is somewhat alarming, especially because interstate migration can have an irritating tendency to sap a capital city of its potential best and brightest.
Since the peak of the mining boom in late 2012, South Australia has lost more than -23,000 residents interstate, with many skipping in a south-easterly direction to the brighter lights of Melbourne.
I don't know how that trend gets arrested, but someone needs to have a deep think about it.
Part 4: Totting it up
Totting it all up, then, strength in net interstate migration takes Queensland's population growth all the way back up to +81,300, from a cyclical nadir of below +60,000 in 2015.
Brisbane typically accounts for 60 to 65 per cent of that growth with Queensland being the one Australian state with diverse and thriving regional centres including Gold Coast (which is set to benefit imminently from the 2018 Commonwealth Games) and Caloundra on the Sunshine Coast.
I looked in a bit more detail here at where the main population flows are headed in the Sunshine State.
But even this rate of state population growth growth pales into insignificance next to Victoria (+147,400) and New South Wales (+123,100).
Net interstate migration away from struggling South Australia is not a new thing, and indeed the ABS figures record that well over 100,000 South Australians have relocated elsewhere on a net basis since the early 1980s.
South Australia now has the slowest population growth of all the states in percentage terms at +0.6 per cent, but it's the composition of demographic change rather than the absolute headcount that should be of most concern.
The present speed of the outflow is somewhat alarming, especially because interstate migration can have an irritating tendency to sap a capital city of its potential best and brightest.
Since the peak of the mining boom in late 2012, South Australia has lost more than -23,000 residents interstate, with many skipping in a south-easterly direction to the brighter lights of Melbourne.
I don't know how that trend gets arrested, but someone needs to have a deep think about it.
Part 4: Totting it up
Totting it all up, then, strength in net interstate migration takes Queensland's population growth all the way back up to +81,300, from a cyclical nadir of below +60,000 in 2015.
Brisbane typically accounts for 60 to 65 per cent of that growth with Queensland being the one Australian state with diverse and thriving regional centres including Gold Coast (which is set to benefit imminently from the 2018 Commonwealth Games) and Caloundra on the Sunshine Coast.
I looked in a bit more detail here at where the main population flows are headed in the Sunshine State.
But even this rate of state population growth growth pales into insignificance next to Victoria (+147,400) and New South Wales (+123,100).
A significant intercensal difference emerged in the 2016 Census and found that the nadir in population growth in Western Australia was considerably lower than previously believed, partly accounting for the dwelling stock overhang, though population growth is now picking up again and the housing market is rebalancing.
Western Australia's annual population growth was up to +22,000 or +0.9 per cent.
Finally, the Northern Territory experienced a small population decline in the September 2017 quarter, which is fairly unusual, though not unheard of.
I've even lived in Darwin myself, which says something about what a cyclical type of place it can be.
Through recent episodes of disruption there have been strong correcting factors such a once-in-150 year resources boom or the Cyclone Tracy rebuild to drive the Territory forward.
I'm not sure what comes next for the NT through the Ichthys/INPEX construction phase wash-up, but then again I haven't been to Darwin for a couple of years and it's the sort of place that likes to deliver surprises.
The wrap
Overall, then, estimated growth in the resident population at +395,600 was comfortably stronger than a year earlier, when it was +370,400.
Australia's estimated resident population will accordingly pass 25 million within just a few months from today, with Queensland's population projected to surpass 5 million in May.
After accounting for the concentration of migrants into the capitals Greater Melbourne is growing at about the fastest pace ever.
Sydney is losing some residents internally to the NSW regions, to the south, north, and west, as Baby Boomers take their new-found housing equity elsewhere for a lifestyle change.
Sydney is losing some residents internally to the NSW regions, to the south, north, and west, as Baby Boomers take their new-found housing equity elsewhere for a lifestyle change.
South-east Queensland population growth will pick up as the magnetic north does its thing, and in fact it already is as anyone living in inner Brisbane will testify.
Next I'll get around to posting my mapping population growth versus dwelling completions, which will reveal an interesting outcome or two, especially for Melbourne and Brisbane.
Please share with a Retweet or Facebook post, or whatever...and have a great weekend!
Please share with a Retweet or Facebook post, or whatever...and have a great weekend!
